Gold tumbled to a three-month low as traders crawled out of their bunkers to take on a bit more risk.
Gold futures slipped nearly 2% Tuesday to $1162 an ounce. That means the gold price has dropped 7% off last month’s nominal record, reached in the aftermath of the latest round of sovereign debt scares in the euro zone. The inflation-adjusted record price for gold is roughly double Tuesday’s price.
Since last month, European debt spreads have narrowed, reflecting increasing confidence that euro zone governments will find a way to deal with their financial problems. At the same time, policymakers in the United States have taken to warning that growth prospects in this country are weakening, reducing the already low odds of a near-term inflation spike.
This is causing some investors to reassess how much gold they need right now.
“Gold prices already include a large premium as a refuge from economic and financial uncertainty,” Julian Jessop of Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients last week. “With inflation risks low, it would now take a major new shock to propel gold prices significantly higher.”
Jessop allows that it’s not difficult to see where another shock might come from. Questions about the creditworthiness of euro zone or other major debtors, such as the United States and Japan, could qualify, as could a major trade dispute with China.
But he says gold looks expensive next to other safe-haven plays, such as inflation-adjusted U.S. Government bonds. As a result, he contends that investors may continue to shun gold for the rest of the year, taking its price down toward $1000 – a level last seen last fall.