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FORTUNE — It was once Apple’s (AAPL) No. 1 source of revenue, but today, 30 years after its launch, the Mac is now almost an afterthought — No. 3 in terms of revenue, behind the iPhone and iPad and ahead (for now) of iTunes.
The Mac did manage to generated $21.5 billion in fiscal 2013 — roughly one eighth of Apple’s total revenue — but the year got off to a bad start. A missed iMac deadline in Q1 2013 brought to an end the 26-quarter streak during which Mac sales had outpaced the PC industry.
Apple is still having trouble getting Macs out the door on schedule — this time it’s the Mac Pro that Apple can’t make fast enough to meet demand. Otherwise things are looking up for Apple’s PC business, at least compared to last year — which is more than you can say for the industry as a whole.
We’ve asked our usual list of Apple analysts for their Mac numbers. Of the 45 heard from so far — 28 pros and 17 amateurs — all but three believe Apple sold more Macs this quarter than it did in the same quarter last year.
As a group, their average estimate for Q1 2014 is 4.6 million Macs — up 13% year over year. The average among the pros is 4.58 million; the independents are at 4.63 million.
Last year it was the pros (at 4.35 million) who were more bullish. As it turned out, the amateurs could have been even more cautious than they were. Their average estimate was 4.17 million Macs; Apple sold 4.06 million.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark this year when the company reports its Q1 1014 earnings after the markets close on Monday, Jan. 27.
Below: The individual analysts estimates, with the pros in blue and the indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
CORRECTION: An earlier version had the Mac’s revenue number for Q1 2013 wrong. It should be right now.