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Nouriel Roubini: Call me Dr. Boom

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
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By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
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May 14, 2014, 1:54 PM ET

FORTUNE — Nouriel Roubini, the famously negative economist, says it may be time to change his nickname.

The New York University professor, who predicted the housing bust and financial crisis, has been upping his economic outlook recently. Speaking at the annual SALT hedge fund conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday morning, Roubini said that many of the risks in the global economy have receded. Also helping, U.S. Investors no longer seem worried about political trouble overseas.

“Next to him you should call me Dr. Boom,” said Roubini, referring to Peter Schiff, another economic forecaster on the panel.

Roubini said the European Union and the Euro were looking a lot stronger than a year ago. He also said “Abenomics” appears to be working in Japan, and the risk of a recession has receded there. But the biggest improvement, Roubini thought, is taking place in the U.S. The deficit has shrunk and Washington appears to have called a truce.

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The discussion — which also included former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, Schiff, the former prime minister of Greece George Papandreou, and politician-turned-Morgan Stanley-employee Harold Ford — turned to deflation. Schiff said deflation could be good for the U.S. Roubini called that notion nonsense. He said the Fed had done a good job ending the threat of deflation or a slowdown.

“The threat of a fiscal crisis in the United States is done,” said Roubini. “The Fed’s unconventional monetary policy has worked.”

Earlier in 2014, after the U.S. Stock market rose 30% in 2013, Roubini said that investors appeared to have gotten ahead of themselves, and was worried the economy would disappoint. Roubini appears to be less concerned about that now, perhaps because the stock market has been mostly flat this year.

Instead, Roubini suggested that stocks and other investments are likely to rise for the next few years. He thinks the market will be pushed up by the Fed, which will keep interest rates low for a few more years. After that, there could be problems, but that is a few years down the road. “We’re not in a bubble yet,” said Roubini.

Roubini primary concern for 2014? China. Roubini has been watching the Chinese banks for a while, and he sees many similarities in the lending there to what was happening in the U.S. Before the financial crisis. He said the risk of something similar happening in China is rising, but he thinks the problem will not be quite as bad as what we saw in the U.S. “It will be a bumpy landing,” he said. “And the market doesn’t seem to be pricing that in.”

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Roubini, like many other economists, is also worried about the long-term effects of income inequality in the United States. He said money is shifting between people who are likely to spend it to those who may sit on those funds. That’s slowing the movement of money in the economy and holding back investment. For example, Roubini said if consumers don’t have money to spend, companies will be less willing to spend the trillions they have put away on expanding their businesses.

Perhaps he won’t be Dr. Boom for long.

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
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