Your average Brit is a Tory and ashamed of it. Either they’re too guilty to admit supporting an agenda of unabashed self-interest, or too timid to follow through with empty boasts to vote for an aggressively anti-foreigner party. That seems the only explanation for the Conservatives’ shock victory in Thursday’s election. Having tied with the left-wing Labour Party all through a month of campaigning, the Tories opened up a 6% lead on the day itself. Even Nate Silver didn’t see it coming. Here are some key takeaways:
1. Social Media ≠ Reality. Not for “Shy Tories,” at least.
Social media shaped perceptions like never before in this campaign, but it gave out as many false signals as true. The noise from Twitter, Facebook and the like was far more skewed to the Left than the actual result. Hardly surprising, says Roger Mortimore, director of political analysis at polling firm IPSOS Mori: “The stereotypical Tory voter is over 50 and probably isn’t on Twitter or Facebook and doesn’t use his mobile phone.” By contrast, the Twittersphere is full of ‘digital natives’, who know how to use modern technology and have a penchant for self-expression that the more restrained older generation simply don’t share. But even that is hardly a secret. Thursday was a night to forget for the polling industry.
2. Scotland the Grave (of the Labour Party)
The one place where reality matched the social media noise was Scotland, where the SNP won 56 out of the 59 seats contested, sweeping the once-dominant Labour Party into oblivion. There are no hard data yet to show how much the SNP owed to having a more engaged younger generation, but the #SNPBecause hashtag on Twitter was the undisputed viral hit of the campaign, making winners of the most unlikely candidates. These included figures as diverse as the fearsome 20 year-old (sic) Glaswegian student Mhairi Black, who became the youngest MP since 1667 and the first candidate to beat Labour in her district in 70 years, and the opportunist Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, born in the posh London borough of Chelsea and a past member of both the Conservative and Labour parties. With the SNP virulently anti-Tory, there’ll be a lot of speculation about pressing for another referendum on independence. However, Cameron promised last September to give Scotland more powers to tax and spend, which may be enough to appease voters north of the border.
3. Where to now, Labour?
Labour’s three straight election wins under Tony Blair were down to his ability to identify with middle-class English voters. Leader Ed Miliband managed to alienate working-class Scots without winning middle-England back. Too far left for England, too far right for Scotland–it really isn’t clear where the party goes from here. Miliband, who had promised rent controls and utility bill caps, has already resigned, along with his deputy. It isn’t clear who will replace him, but it’s unlikely to be the nakedly ambitious spokesman on finance matters, Ed Balls (elder brother of PIMCO chief investment officer for fixed-income Andrew). Balls lost his seat last night to a former shop assistant-turned-music teacher, Andrea Jenkyns.
3. Why can’t we have a system like Europe? (Say UKIP)
Unlike most of Europe, the U.K. Operates an entirely ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system. Its vagaries were on full view again last night, as the Tories won a majority with only 36% of the vote. The SNP also profited, winning its 56 seats with only 1.45 million votes. By contrast, the anti-foreigner, anti E.U. Party UKIP got 3.87 million votes and only 1 seat, while the centrist Liberal Democrats earned only 8 seats with 2.4 million (both their party leaders resigned Friday too). Having rejected proportional representation in a referendum four years ago, U.K. Voters can’t complain. Many will enjoy the spectacle of defeated UKIP candidates arguing that there is after all something the Brits can learn from Continental types.
5. “BREXIT”
If there’s one thing business won’t like about a Conservative victory, it’s David Cameron’s promise of a referendum by the end of 2017 on taking the U.K. Out of the European Union. The odds of Britain voting for that are small: only UKIP voters expressly want out. But if Cameron fails to extract the sort of meaningful reform he wants from an E.U. Still dominated by Germany and France (difficult, especially on limiting immigration), then the risk is that the euroskeptic wing of his party will either force him into advocating a “Brexit”, or paralyse his government if he campaigns for staying in. The bloc of potential rebels is much larger than Cameron’s 13-seat majority, so the risk is real. But the last time the Tories split over Europe they ended up in opposition for 13 years. You’d think that would have taught them the value of party discipline.
