Voting hasn’t even started yet in many U.S. States, but the stock market is clearly “With Her.”
U.S. Stocks snapped their nearly two-week losing streak on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising more than 2% after nine straight sessions of declines—its longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis, spurred by the narrowing of election polls. The reversal came after the FBI said on Sunday that it had found nothing to implicate Hillary Clinton in a new cache of emails, increasing the Democratic candidate’s odds of winning the presidential election.
Shares in First Solar (FSLR), for example—a company expected to benefit from Clinton’s positive attitude towards renewable energy sources—gained nearly 4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been on a slightly shorter seven-session losing streak, more than recovered its losses, gaining 2%. The S&P 500 remained just 20 points, or 1%, shy of its pre-selloff level two weeks ago.
The market’s rally increased investors’ confidence that a President Clinton would be good for U.S. Stocks—even though the candidate wouldn’t necessarily be good for some of the day’s biggest gainers. For example, Cemex (CX), the Mexico-based cement company that is the most likely company to build Donald Trump’s proposed wall at the southern border of the U.S., tends to be a decent proxy for a Trump victory, according to Coins2Day’s recent analysis. But Cemex shares rose almost 8% on Monday. (Investors may believe Clinton’s friendlier tone towards Mexico in general will be good for companies there that also trade with the U.S., including Cemex—which also benefits from housing and economic growth.)
Coins2Day updated its recent breakdown of what the market is predicting for who will win the election, awarding points for market indicators that correlate more closely with each candidate’s strength in the polls:
Mexican Peso
Given the Republican candidate’s tough talk about Mexican immigrants and a potential border wall, investors believe that a Trump White House would hurt Mexico-U.S. Trade relations—as well as the Mexican peso, which has been falling as Trump rises in the polls and rising as Clinton does. The peso, which had fallen 2.5% against the dollar in last two weeks during the stock market’s selloff, rose 2.3% on Monday—its biggest jump since rising nearly 3% after the polls declared Clinton the winner of the first presidential debate in September. The peso is up another 7% against the dollar since then, though it hasn’t recovered all the ground it lost when Clinton’s lead narrowed in the last couple of weeks.
Score: Clinton +0.5
Biotech
This one’s a headscratcher: Pharma and biotech stocks have generally responded negatively to the idea of a Clinton presidency, given her promises to rein in drug price hikes through greater regulation, with one tweet by the candidate enough to shave billions of dollars off the drugmakers’ market value. Yet the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index surged almost 4% on Monday as Clinton gained strength in the polls.
That rally, however, requires some context: It follows a major swoon in biotech stocks last week after reports that the U.S. Justice Department may soon press charges against several drugmakers in a criminal investigation into price collusion. One of the biggest losers from that news was Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP), whose shares recovered almost 5% on Monday. Some investors also thought that polling data suggesting that the Republicans would take the majority of seats in Congress was boosting drugmakers’ stocks, as that would dampen Clinton’s ability to regulate prescription prices even if she wins the White House. Regeneron (REGN) stock, for example, gained more than 7%, while shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) gained more than 5%. Still other stocks surged for completely unrelated reasons, such as Biogen (BIIB), which rose nearly 7% after reporting encouraging drug trial data.
The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index, however, is still down almost 7% since Clinton clinched the Democratic nomination for president in July—even more than it was when we checked a couple of weeks ago.
Score: Tie
Obamacare stocks
While Trump wants to repeal President Obama’s health care law, known as the Affordable Care Act, Clinton has stood by Obamacare while indicating that she wants to expand insurance coverage further. Analysts think that will help large hospital networks such as HCA (HCA), whose stock surged almost 6% on Monday.
Score: Clinton +1
Gold
Just as Clinton tends to be good for the stock market and the Mexican peso, Trump has been good for the price of gold—and not just because of the color the GOP candidate tends to use to emblazon his name on various structures. One of Trump’s economic advisers, for example, has advocated a return to the gold standard. Investors have also flocked to gold for safety, fearing that a Trump victory could not only prompt a selloff on the magnitude of the Brexit-induced swoon in June, but could damage international trade relationships, hurting the U.S. Economy and the strength of the dollar.
But the price of gold plunged nearly 2% Monday as Clinton gained strength in the polls, and the SPDR Gold ETF fell about as much.
Score: Clinton +1
Totals:
Clinton +2.5—WINNER
