According to the latest projections, China’s Tiangong-1 space station is expected to fall to Earth between late Sunday and early Monday. That broad window reflects the bus-sized station’s chaotic descent from orbit since China’s space authorities lost control of it in 2016.
The timeline comes from the European Space Agency, and the nonprofit Aerospace Corp. German monitors have also reportedly observed the station “tumbling” through the sky.
The uncontrolled descent means it’s hard to know precisely where Tiangong-1 will fall, but experts agree there’s little reason for worry on the ground. The most recent projection, according to Space.com, has the station falling into the Pacific Ocean.
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Even if it heads towards land, the station is expected to substantially burn up when it hits the Earth’s atmosphere, leaving, by the estimate of Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, between 220 and 440 pounds of surviving debris. That debris, McDowell told LiveScience, will be spread over “hundreds of kilometers along the line of travel.” One estimate has the odds of getting hit by debris as 1 in 300 trillion.
Tiangong-1’s burnup is expected to produce an impressive light show wherever it re-enters the atmosphere, complete with fireballs formed by the station’s various sections. For those who want to keep a closer eye on the Chinese station over the next few hours, Space.com is hosting a tracking tool here.