Han Solo may be one of the most beloved characters of the Star Wars franchise, but he appears set to underwhelm at the box office — at least in the context of the Disney era.
Solo: A Star Wars Story, out this Friday, is on course to open somewhere between $130 and $150 million this Memorial Day weekend, which is actually a substantial haul. The domestic record for the holiday weekend is $139.8 million (not adjusted for inflation), set by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End in 2007. Solo could very well come out of the weekend as a record-breaker — but in terms of its performance in comparison to Disney’s other Star Wars movies, the spin-off will likely fall short.
Here’s the opening domestic haul for the past three Star Wars films: The Force Awakens ($248 million in 2015), Rogue One ($155.1 million in 2016), The Last Jedi ($220 million in 2017).
There are a few possible explanations for Solo‘s lower expectations. First, it’s Disney’s first time rolling out a Star Wars movie in the summer — the previous three all released in December. It’s also Disney’s first time releasing two Star Wars movies within the span of 6 months — are moviegoers starting to feel Star Wars fatigue? Third, Solo is the lowest-rated Star Wars film since Disney acquired Lucasfilm, with the movie currently rated at a solid-but-not-great 70%, according to Rotten Tomatoes. The abrupt, mid-production departure of Solo‘s original directors — Phil Lord and Christopher Miller — was highly publicized, in addition to rumors that star Alden Ehrenreich needed an acting coach to bring his performance up to par.
One more speculative possibility: Maybe people just don’t care enough about a solo Solo movie. While the original trilogy and prequels were very much Luke and Anakin Skywalker’s movies, respectively, this is the first Star Wars film explicitly centering on a single character.
Regardless of the reasoning, the latest Star Wars Story will be success at the box office in the grand scheme of things, boosted by the budding superstardom of Donald Glover, who plays Lando Calrissian, and Game of Thrones crossover Emilia Clarke. Solo: A Star Wars Story is out in theaters May 25.