It’s been a wild ride.
The Brett Kavanaugh drama is finally coming to an end, and if the prediction markets are right, the final act will end with him securing a lifetime appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The cost of a “yes” share on the PredictIt market was 90 cents — which equates to a 90 percent chance of confirmation — as of 2 p.m. In New York. If he’s confirmed by the Senate, the wager pays out $1 per share.
Less than two weeks ago, the cost of “yes” shares fell as low as 26 cents after the New Yorker magazine reported that a second woman, a Yale University classmate, had stepped forward with an accusation of sexual misconduct. (His confirmation was seen as a lock before Christine Blasey Ford accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault while in high school.)
The shares then fluctuated between 26 cents and 69 cents in the lead-up to Kavanaugh’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee — and closed at 74 cents on the day of the hearing, where he forcefully denied the allegations.
A major procedural vote in the Senate, which the GOP controls 51-49, is planned for Friday. A final vote on Kavanaugh could come as soon as Saturday.