Has Trump made business better?

Good morning.

Has Trump made business better? It’s interesting to consider how events of the last four years have changed the business community. Trump’s positions on issues like climate change, immigration and racial justice have helped force U.S. Business leaders to take strong stands on those issues—often at the insistence of their employees.

If Joe Biden wins next month, and especially if the Democrats increase their congressional numbers, the positional dynamics will change. Business could find themselves facing a raft of regulatory proposals on these same issues—many of them ill-conceived—that forces them to shift to a defensive crouch.

But the forces driving the stakeholder capitalism movement go well beyond the vicissitudes of America politics. Colin Mayer captured the most important of those forces with a statistic he cited in his book Prosperity.  I’ve quoted it before, but worth repeating:

“Forty years ago, 80% of the market value of US corporations was attributable to tangible assets—plant, machinery, and buildings—as against intangibles—licenses, patents, and research and development. Today, intangibles account for 85% of the market value of U.S. Corporations.”

In a world where intellectual property rules, it is human capital—not financial or physical capital – that drives value. And the best companies ignore the social aspirations of their employees only at their peril. Climate change, relatively open labor markets, and racial and social justice will remain high on the agenda of companies that want to attract the best workers.

One basic political principle that I’m hearing more CEOs articulate these days, however, is this: Partisan solutions—whether the Affordable Care Act or the Trump tax cut—are not stable. And business needs certainty if it is going to deal effectively with long-term issues. Regardless of who wins next month, business should use its lobbying might to insist regulatory and tax efforts be bipartisan. Otherwise, the lurch from one political extreme to the other will continue.

More news below. And a new report out this morning shows the dramatic change of fortune that has hit the U.S. Oil, gas and chemical industry this year. The report says that 70% of the 107,000 jobs lost by the industry between March and August may not return by the end of 2021. You can find the full report here.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
[email protected]

TOP NEWS

Trump's condition

How is President Trump doing? Good question. His medical team is talking about him being released from Walter Reed as soon as today, but his need for supplemental oxygen, and the nature of the medication we know he's been given, suggests he has a more severe case of COVID-19 than he's letting on. Trump is also facing criticism for getting into a car with his Secret Service agents for a photo op, despite his potentially deadly infection. Coins2Day

Cinema closures

Cineworld is temporarily shuttering all of its locations in the U.K. And the U.S. (Where it operates Regal Cinemas). The move comes after yet another delay for the release of the new Bond flick, No Time to Die, and the tepid box office receipts for Christopher Nolan's Tenet. Cineworld CEO Mooky Greidinger: "We are like a grocery shop that doesn’t have vegetables, fruit, meat. We cannot operate for a long time without a product." Guardian

Google India

Google's strict enforcement of its 30% commission fee for in-app purchases is being delayed by six months in India, where the company says it needs to be "mindful of local needs and concerns." The enforcement was supposed to kick in at the end of September next year, but now Google will set up "listening sessions" to understand the concerns of Indian startups. Reuters

Rainforest protection

McDonald's, Unilever, Tesco, Nestlé and other food companies operating in the U.K. Are lobbying the government to ban produce from all deforested land—not just illegally deforested land, as the government is already planning to target. "Restricting action to illegal deforestation would not achieve halting the loss of natural ecosystems, especially when governments have discretion to decide what is legal," the companies said in a response to a consultation over the proposed law. BBC

AROUND THE WATER COOLER

German exception

Here's the list of countries in the eurozone that are currently enjoying solid economic growth: Germany. Everyone else is still suffering due to a services sector that's being hammered by travel and other coronavirus restrictions. IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson: "The chances of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter have clearly risen. Much will depend on whether second waves of virus infections can be controlled, and whether social distancing restrictions can therefore be loosened to allow service sector activity to pick up again." Bloomberg

Paris alert

Paris and its surrounding suburbs are being put on "maximum alert" today, due to soaring numbers of coronavirus cases. Bars will need to close tomorrow, but restaurants get to stay open for now. The COVID-19 incidence rate in the French capital is more than 250 infections per 100,000 people. CNBC

BlackRock criticism

Climate activists have criticized BlackRock for backing fewer environmental votes at annual meetings this year than it did last year. That comes despite CEO Larry Fink's dire warnings about the effects of climate change on markets. FollowThis founder Mark van Baal: "As a shareholder, voting and divestment are the only ways to make your request evidently visible, everything else is just talk." Financial Times

Silicon Valley

Big Tech is "dangerously out of touch with its users," writes tech executive Maelle Gavet in a piece for Coins2Day: "From disinformation and voter manipulation to privacy breaches and the new 'feudal system' unleashed by the gig economy, tech’s toxic fallout emanates essentially from one source: how tech is built, the way engineering teams work, the bubble a lot of them live in, and the pool from which talent is selected." Coins2Day

This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.