Earnings were supposed to lift the markets. What happened?

Happy Friday, Bull Sheeters. Global stocks and U.S. Futures are moving in opposite directions with the latter pointing to a weak open. COVID and labor market jitters are weighing heavily on investor sentiment as the stimulus talks bog down. Earnings beats, so far, are failing to lift risk appetite.

Let’s check in on the action.

Markets update

Asia

• The major Asia indexes were mostly higher in afternoon trading with the Hong Kong Hang Seng bouncing back, up 0.9%.
• Chinese retailing giant Minosobegan trading with a bang on the NYSE yesterday. It’s losing money, but its ambition is to go global.
• In the EM world, Indian stocks have been outperforming the pack since April. Morgan Stanley is still bullish on Indian equities, and it’s overweight some surprising sectors, including energy.

Europe

• The European bourses are in the green with the Europe Stoxx 600 up 0.7% two hours into the trading session.
• Will he or won’t he? Today is Boris Johnson’s self-imposed deadline on whether he walks away from post-Brexit trade negotiations. One of Johnson’s few areas of leverage is a fishy one. Quite literally.
• Daimler shares were up more than 2% at the open after the carmaker reported a huge bottom line beat, posting a preliminary operating profit of €3.07 billion ($3.6 billion), a sign Europe’s auto sector may be turning a corner (helped by subsidies).

U.S.

• U.S. Futures are in the red. That’s after the three major indexespared their losses late in yesterday’s session on the slimmest of hopes—stop me if you’ve heard this one—the stimulus talks might not be dead. Okay, they’re probably dead. But not buried.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor market is looking bleaker every Thursday. The jobless claims number came in yesterday at a worse-than-expected898,000. Warning: the stock market is beginning to pay attention to this number.
• Shares of Boeing were up 2.6% in pre-market trading following a Bloomberg report that a European regulator has deemed the 737 Max “safe” to fly.

Elsewhere

• Gold is ticking up, trading around $1,915/ounce.
• The dollar is down slightly.
• Crude is down. Brent continues to trade in a range just below $43/barrel.

***

By the numbers

898,000

New weekly applications for unemployment benefits are going in the wrong direction: up. For the second straight week, the claims number came in above analyst expectations at 898,000. To put that in perspective, the pre-pandemic high was 695,000. “The worsening of the pace of UI claims this week reinforces the message from the latest September jobs report that the economy’s pace of recovery is slowing down amid the ongoing pandemic,” says Glassdoor Chief Economist Andrew Chamberlain. “America is unlikely to see a full recovery and a return to low unemployment until the pace of weekly UI claims dials back significantly. As the virus remains in the driver’s seat, today’s elevated claims cast a shadow over the fate of the U.S. Labor market in the next half year.”

69.31

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday at 28494.20—that’s a gain of a mere 69 points (+0.2%) over the past five trading days. After closing down three straight sessions, the blue chip index appears to be losing momentum as COVID cases climb, and labor market numbers deteriorate. Meanwhile, the big carrot—a stimulus deal—is looking less likely by the day.

15%

COVID is climbing on both sides of the Atlantic. And the markets have noticed. The infection numbers are bad, but the big metric to watch is hospitalizations and deaths, two ominous lagging indicators that have the power to torpedo economic recovery, particularly as curfews and regional lockdown measures are enacted. And the hospitalization figures in the U.S. Are flashing red at the moment. They’re up 15% over the past two weeks. Paradoxically, the outbreak is surging in some of America’s least populous states.

***

Have a nice weekend, everyone. I’ll see you here on Monday. 

Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
[email protected]

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Today's read

Pandemic boost. Here's one of those surprising—or maybe not—segments of the economy that's proving to be pandemic-proof: sports betting. According to New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, New Jersey's sports betting market hit a record in September, taking in more than $748 million. Most of it was in the form of in-person betting.

Bellwethers. Morgan Stanley was the latest of the big banks to report Q3 results yesterday, and it dazzled the markets with a big fat bottom line beat. But the sector as a whole is having a rocky year as big sectors of the economy are missing out on the recovery. 

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Market candy

Quote of the day

There was no playbook or blueprint for this.

That's Kelly Flatow, executive vice president for events for the National Basketball Association, and one of the key architects behind the pro basketball league's successful move to play out the conclusion of the COVID-struck season in a "bubble." Coins2Day's Adam Lashinsky and Brian O'Keefe get the scoop from league insiders. It's a fascinating read.