• Home
  • Latest
  • Coins2Day 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia
FinanceCoronavirus

Goldman Sachs downgrades GDP estimates for Q4 and beyond thanks to COVID case surge

By
Lee Clifford
Lee Clifford
Executive Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lee Clifford
Lee Clifford
Executive Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 23, 2020, 3:00 PM ET

Goldman Sachs is serving up some harsh projections just days before Thanksgiving.

The bank cited “the rapid and broad-based resurgence of the coronavirus” as the main reason it was downgrading Q4 and Q1 GDP forecasts. Goldman now expects +3.5% and +1.0% annualized growth in Q4 and Q1 (+4.5% and +3.5% previously).

Indeed, the worry is that as too many travelers in the U.S. Ignore Thanksgiving COVID recommendations from the CDC and keep plans to mix and mingle with extended family, we’ll see cases continue to rise from their already staggeringly high levels. Then that will lead governments to reinstate regulations that curtail economic activity.

The resulting crackdowns may vary geographically, however. “We expect the largest hit in the Northeast, where lower temperatures will likely mean a larger virus headwind and where policymakers have indicated more willingness to impose restrictions, and the smallest hit in the South. We expect sequential declines in consumer services spending over November through January, and now see -1.0% annualized real consumption growth in Q1,” the analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, the outcome of any stimulus deal now seems to hang on the two Senate races that are heading to a runoff in Georgia. Should the Democrats capture both seats, and thus control the chamber thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice-President elect Kamala Harris, most economists see a big package, including another round of $1,200 direct payments. But if Republicans retain control they have long been partial to a much “skinnier” package which is not likely to include checks for individuals.

Goldman’s analysts had earlier cautioned that failure to reach a “fiscal agreement by the end of Q1 or widespread and more stringent virus restrictions could lead to outright contraction in Q1.”

But it’s not all bad news. Goldman analysts also predict that the “larger drag in the winter should imply an even larger reacceleration on the back of mass immunization. We have thus increased our Q2 and Q3 growth forecasts to +9.5% and +7.0%, respectively (vs. +7.0% and +6.0% previously).”

That may be one reason the bank remains quite bullish when it comes to the stock market. As my colleague Bernhard Warner wrote this morning in his Bull Sheet newsletter, “Goldman calculates the S&P 500 will close this year at 3,700, up roughly 4% from the Friday close. As for 2021, it will rise a further 16% to top 4,300.”

About the Author
By Lee CliffordExecutive Editor
LinkedIn icon

Lee Clifford is an Executive Editor at Coins2Day. Primarily she works with the Enterprise reporting team, which covers Tech, Leadership, and Finance as well as daily news and analysis from Coins2Day’s most experienced writers.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Coins2Day 500
  • Global 500
  • Coins2Day 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • Future 50
  • World’s Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
Sections
  • Finance
  • Leadership
  • Success
  • Tech
  • Asia
  • Europe
  • Environment
  • Coins2Day Crypto
  • Health
  • Retail
  • Lifestyle
  • Politics
  • Newsletters
  • Magazine
  • Features
  • Commentary
  • Mpw
  • CEO Initiative
  • Conferences
  • Personal Finance
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Coins2Day Brand Studio
  • Coins2Day Analytics
  • Coins2Day Conferences
  • Business Development
About Us
  • About Us
  • Editorial Calendar
  • Press Center
  • Work At Coins2Day
  • Diversity And Inclusion
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Most Popular

placeholder alt text
Economy
'I just don't have a good feeling about this': Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted and everyone's now looking at the wrong alarm
By Eleanor PringleJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Future of Work
Ford CEO has 5,000 open mechanic jobs with up to 6-figure salaries from the shortage of manually skilled workers: 'We are in trouble in our country'
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Success
Ryan Serhant starts work at 4:30 a.m.—he says most people don’t achieve their dreams because ‘what they really want is just to be lazy’
By Preston ForeJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Success
Alexis Ohanian walked out of the LSAT 20 minutes in, went to a Waffle House, and decided he was 'gonna invent a career.' He founded Reddit
By Preston ForeJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Economy
Meet the first CEO of the IRS: A Jamie Dimon protege facing a $5 trillion test this tax season
By Shawn TullyJanuary 31, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Startups & Venture
Silicon Valley legend Kleiner Perkins was written off. Then an unlikely VC showed up
By Allie GarfinkleJanuary 31, 2026
21 hours ago

© 2026 Coins2Day Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Coins2Day Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.


Latest in Finance

PoliticsCuba
Trump says the U.S. is ‘starting to talk to Cuba’ as he moves to cut its oil supplies
By Michelle L. Price, Will Weissert and The Associated PressFebruary 1, 2026
20 minutes ago
trader
Investingbubble
‘We’re not in a bubble yet’ because only 3 out of 4 conditions are met, top economist says. Cue the OpenAI IPO
By Nick LichtenbergFebruary 1, 2026
3 hours ago
CommentaryLeadership
How Trump helped Harvard: 5 ‘Crimson’ leadership lessons on standing up to bullies 
By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian and Stephen HenriquesFebruary 1, 2026
5 hours ago
Elon Musk sits with his hands on his knees in front of a blue "World Economic Forum" background.
Economythe future of work
Musk’s fantasy for a future where work is optional just got more real: UK minister calls for universal basic income to cushion AI-related job losses
By Sasha RogelbergFebruary 1, 2026
7 hours ago
Startups & VentureOpenAI
Nvidia CEO signals investment in OpenAI round may be largest yet
By Debby Wu and BloombergJanuary 31, 2026
17 hours ago
Economygeopolitics
BRICS could become a new pillar of global governance—if its rapid growth doesn’t erode its newfound clout
By Brian WongJanuary 31, 2026
17 hours ago