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Good morning. There are signs of life in the futures market. Tuesday’s great unwinding of tech stocks and crypto assets is reversing.
Bitcoin is climbing, as I type, as are Tesla futures. Both are being helped by Ark Investment’s über bull, Cathie Wood, a hero to retail investors, going all-in and buying on the dip. She’s “very happy,” she says, “to see a healthy correction here.”
Speaking of happiness, Nasdaq futures are up 25 points after closing yesterday at a more than three-week low, close to wiping out all of its February gains.
Let’s see what else is moving markets.
Markets update
Asia
- The major Asia indexes are deeply lower in afternoon trading, with the Hang Seng off 3%.
- Hong Kong’s trading woes today stem from a report the city will impose a stamp duty on stock trades, spooking investors. A reminder: taxes on trading are deeply unpopular, the world over.
- This happens every now and then in business journalism: The Wall Street Journal reports on the meteoric stock rally of the Robinhoods of China: Nasdaq-listed Futu and Up Fintech. Alas, investors clobbered both in yesterday’s tech sell-off.
Europe
- The European bourses were mixed with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.2% two hours into the trading session. Financials, travel and chemicals stocks are the best performers.
- I was glancing at the global leader board for vaccine rates this morning, and had to scroll down, down, down to find where Italy, Germany and France rank. Much needed vaccine batches are on the way, which poses a new problem: ramping up distribution across the EU.
- European equities had a choppy day on Tuesday, but the outlier was travel and leisure stocks following a burst in holidaymakers booking vacations in the months to come.
U.S.
- U.S. Futures have been trading sideways most of the morning. That’s after a wild comeback pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to a positive close on Tuesday, snapping a five-day skid on the benchmark index.
- Alas, the Nasdaq fell for a fifth time in the past six trading sessions, dragged down by Apple and Tesla. GameStop, that darling of the Reddit brigade, also finished in the red.
- Things could have been worse had it not been for the dovish remarks of the Fed’s Jerome Powell who told senators yesterday he’s not concerned about the prospect of inflation (and, basically, neither should you). A reminder to newbies: the Fed is America’s central bank. It’s not a growth-stock-heavy ETF (though some days it’s hard to tell).
Elsewhere
- Gold is flat, trading above $1,800/ounce.
- The dollar is up slightly.
- Crude is higher with Brent trading above $65/barrel.
- Bitcoin is 6% higher, trading around $51,000 at 11 a.m. Rome time.
***
The i-word
Take a deep breath.
I get that every-day investors are worried about inflation, and the resulting tightening of monetary policy that would follow from rising prices. And I can see why that concern is messing with investor psyche. The markets shot up so far so fast last year—the S&P is up more than 70% since its March, 2020 nadir— that it’s perfectly natural to be scouting for signs the good times in equities are coming to an end.
But you know who doesn’t agree with this downer sentiment? Economists, a bunch not known for their party-on exuberance. I haven’t seen a single economist predict that the Fed will make a move on interest rates before the end of 2023 at the earliest.
In fact, many are saying the price-rise concerns are a mere blip, and that we shouldn’t be concerned about it right now—even if inflation expectations have now climbed to a multi-year high, well above pre-pandemic levels, as this Goldman Sachs graph shows:
Inflation above 2% is the key to remember. If prices rise by that much for a sustained period, then and only then, would the FOMC consider hiking rates to cool off the economy. But that won’t happen until, at the earliest, the first half of 2024, Goldman now says.
In other words, it’s not a concern for 2021, or even 2022.
The Fed’s Jerome Powell will speak again today, and it’s almost a certainty he won’t budge from the dovish script he recited from yesterday. The labor market is still a mess, and that’s the market he’s most likely to focus on in his remarks again this morning.
Powell is a rare central banker in that he’s not an economist by training. Still, he speaks and thinks like one. The data is what will guide him, and the data isn’t pointing to any major surprises.
So, you can exhale now.
***
Have a nice day. I’ll see you here tomorrow. But first, there’s more news below.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
[email protected]
As always, you can write to [email protected] or reply to this email with suggestions and feedback.
Today's reads
Bitcoin and the inflation myth. Don't let a crypto bull convince you her position in Bitcoin comes down to a big fat hedge on inflation. The rise and fall of the cryptocurrency bears no discernible connection to rising prices in the real world, Coins2Day's Shawn Tully points out. Exhibit X: yesterday's BTC crash.
A bond slump for the ages. The surge in real yields this month is one without precedent. For equity investors here's the thing to know: it's adding rocket fuel to the rotational trade. The WSJ plots out which S&P sectors are up/down since Feb. 12 when Treasury yields took off. Spoiler: tech is the worst performer.
Save the date. Tomorrow at 1 p.m. I will be joining my colleagues Jen Wieczner and Anne Sraders for a panel on investing in these tumultuous times. We'll discuss Bitcoin, the reflation/rotation trade, SPACs and anything else rocking the markets these days. It should be fun, and informative. If you're a premium subscriber, you should have received an email invite.
Some of these stories require a subscription to access. There is a discount offer for our loyal readers if you use this link to sign up. Thank you for supporting our journalism.
Market candy
On SPACs, PIPEs, and IPOs
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Matt Levine is my go-to on complicated market matters—even on the stuff I've written about more than once, like SPACs. His latest "Money Stuff" column on the bizarre market debut of EV maker Lucid Motors sums up everything a prospective investor should know about these sometimes murky fund-raising events.
