After Tuesday’s mighty rally, tech bulls have reason for optimism

Good morning, Bull Sheeters. For a second straight day, bond yields are fairly subdued, and that’s breathing life into equities. Warning: there’s a big auction of 10-year notes at 1 p.m. ET, so don’t get too comfortable.

To recap: tech stocks secured their biggest rally since November yesterday, and Nasdaq futures are mostly in the green as I write.

In today’s essay, we tackle the burning question: is this recent tech rally sustainable?

But first, let’s see what else is moving markets.

Markets update

Asia

• The major Asia indexes are modestly higher in afternoon trading, with the Hang Seng up 0.5%.
• Among yesterday’s big winners were U.S.-listed EV makers Nio, Xpeng Motors and Li Auto, which added a combined$13.7 billion in market value in yesterday’s Nasdaq-led rally.
• Are Chinese authorities censoring social media chatter around stocks? That’s the growing belief after a search of Weibo for the Chinese equivalent of “stock market” generated no posts earlier today, “suggesting the phrase had been censored,” Bloomberg reports.

Europe

• The European bourses were a touch lower out of the gates with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.3%, before gaining. Telecoms, autos and finance are all in the green this morning.
• Shares in Adidas were 3.4% higher mid-morning after the athletic-wear giant predicted a solid rebound this year after a rough 2020.
• Zara owner, Inditex, meanwhile, posted a big bottom-line miss this morning, sending shares 0.6% lower in the second hour of trade.

U.S.

• U.S. Futures  have been gaining all morning. That’s after a tech-fueled rally on Tuesday driven higher by the likes of Tesla, Etsy and Peloton.
• Going into yesterday, Tesla was down 36% from its all-time high, only to recover more than half of that (+20%) yesterday. Such volatility is hardly new. “The stock has seen three sharp selloffs of more than 30% in a span of about a month since the beginning of 2020,” Bloomberg notes.
• Shares in Wells Fargo failed to join in yesterday’s rally (along with other bank stocks) after the lender became the last of U.S.’s “Big Six” banks to issue a net-zero carbon pledge, an imperative for any company looking to curry favor with the ESG crowd.

Elsewhere

• Gold is down, trading around $1,715/ounce.
• The dollar is up.
• Crude is off with Brent trading below $67/barrel.
• Bitcoin is holding steady above $54,000.

***

Don’t call it a comeback

I been here for years/ I’m rockin’ my peers

Tech bulls were in fine spirits on Twitter yesterday. I even caught glimpse of a Nasdaq 17,000 prediction that generated a heap of likes.

A bull sees a rally like yesterday’s and interprets it as a comeback—sorry, LL—in the making. A bear might zoom back and focus in on just how volatile the tech-stock trade has been in recent weeks.

In fact, here’s the rundown for the Nasdaq over the last five trading sessions:

Wednesday, March 3: down 2.7%

Thursday, March 4: down 2.1%

Friday, March 5: up 1.6%

Monday, March 8: down 2%

Tuesday, March 9: up 3.7%

Can you see a pattern here?

I gotta admit, I’m not seeing the makings of a sustained rally. And sure enough, Nasdaq futures have been up and down all morning.

But there are plenty on Wall Street who see signs of life in the tech trade. In yesterday’s investor note, BofA Securities, for example, revealed some interesting data showing “there’s still lots of love for tech.”

“Last week’s big net buying was concentrated in Tech,” the BofA report said, “which saw another near-record weekly inflow ($2.6B, the highest in over seven years). As a result, four-week average Tech flows have hit a record high (cover chart).”

Here’s the aforementioned chart:

We’re currently at that red circle on the far right side of the chart. For much of 2021, there had been more weekly outflows than inflows into tech. That changed last week in a big way. Hedge funds, retail investors and corporates were big tech buyers.

So, should you too follow their lead?

It’s a complicated calculation, as my colleague, Anne Sraders, reported yesterday. Rising bond yields, for example are the kryptonite of the long-tech trade. Rates have been subdued for the past two days, helping tech regain some footing. But with a fresh round of stimulus in the offing, all bets are off. With such uncertainty, many asset management pros are preaching now is the time to tear up last year’s tech-heavy playbook.

Speaking of time… the single I reference above—”Mama Said Knock You Out“—came out 30 years ago… when the Nasdaq was trading below 500. That’s not only making me feel really old this morning, but plenty regretful. That’s some return!

***

Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
[email protected]

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