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Happy Friday!
Asia and Europe are awash in red again, sliding further throughout the morning. U.S. Futures aren’t looking much better. COVID, China, growth concerns and tapering jitters are combining to create a real risk-off mood in global markets.
As for the winners? Look no further than the almighty dollar (that’s a bad sign for stocks), and crypto. Bitcoin jumped yesterday on news Wells Fargo and JPMorgan have both registered with the SEC plans for Bitcoin funds.
Let’s see what else is moving markets. We begin in Asia.
Markets update
Asia
- Asia is ending a rough week on a rough note. The Hang Seng is down 1.8% in afternoon trading, and the Shanghai Composite is off nearly as much.
- Beijing’s regulatory dragnet extended today to liquor distillers, cosmetics firms and online pharmacies, pushing investors to dump shares in a broad-based sell-off. It also passed strict new data privacy rules, socking tech stocks.
- It’s not all bad news… Mobile operator China Telecom had a rousing stock market debut in Shanghai where its shares surged at one point 44% above its offer price, the daily limit, on Friday.
Europe
- The European bourses look set to close out the week on a whimper with the Stoxx Europe 600 up a mere 0.04% at the open, before slipping into the red. That’s after the benchmark fell 1.5% yesterday, its worst sell-off in a month.
- Marks & Spencer surged nearly 10% at the open after the iconic U.K. Retailer raised its full-year guidance on signs the business is picking up.
U.S.
- U.S. Futures are lower this morning, threatening to send stocks down for the week. That’s after the S&P 500 eked out a tiny gain on Thursday thanks to an afternoon rally.
- The big loser this week, according to Deutsche Bank data, is the small-cap Russell 2000, off more than 4% so far.
- Investors appear completely unperturbed by Facebook‘s latest regulatory woes. Shares in the social media giant are flat in pre-market (and were largely unchanged yesterday) after the FTC said it would take another crack at an antitrust case.
- We’re not quite finished with earnings season. On tap today are Deere and Foot Locker.
Elsewhere
- Gold is up, trading around $1,790.
- The dollar is higher after touching a nine-month high yesterday.
- Crude is off its lows, with Brent trading below $67/barrel.
- Bitcoin rocketed higher overnight, climbing above $47,000.
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By the numbers
What I enjoy most about writing the Bull Sheet is the chatter that ensues after I press the publish button. Readers send me notes about all manner of things—from recipes to dog photos to probing takes on the markets. This week, a few of you shared with me your concerns about the markets, and, in particular the direction of stocks. It wasn’t just that Wednesday’s sell-off rattled nerves. It’s that it came immediately after this almighty 16-month rally hit a milestone: the S&P 500 climbing to 100% above its March, 2020 lows. It’s human nature to ask ourselves: just how long can we expect this winning streak to last?
With that in mind, I thought I’d dedicate today’s “By the numbers” to equities, pulling out some stats and observations and Monte Carlo metaphors that will make you feel pretty good (and not so good) about your stocks-dominated portfolio.
Let’s go.
96.9%
The S&P 500 is up nearly 97% since its pandemic-crash low of 2,237.40 reached on March 23, 2020. Yes, as of Monday’s close, the benchmark was up more than 100%, the fastest doubling in the modern era. According to CNBC, it took just 354 market days to double from X to 2X. For those of you who put a few grand on a simple S&P-tracking ETF on March 24, 2000, the Bull Sheet-branded cigars are in the mail. Good for you!
Correction and update, August 20, 2021: This above paragraph has been updated to correct the date of the S&P 500 pandemic-crash low.
Half empty
The higher the market climbs, the more we hear from the bears. History shows, they point out, that after huge rallies in equities, we get a pullback, and maybe even a correction. It might even be a steep one. A reader sent me yesterday a note penned by John P. Hussman, a well known investing pro who likes to prick holes in bubbles when he sees them. Hussman sees today’s stock market as yet another bubble, just as he saw the 2007-08 housing market as a bubble and the dot-com frenzy in the late 1990s as a bubble.
$8.34 trillion
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet just surpassed $8.3 trillion, yet another record. That’s a lot of mortgage-backed securities, corporate paper and bonds being hoovered up every week. As long as there’s a whale of this size still active in the markets, you should probably stick with your current investment strategy, the thinking goes.
Seven or 11
It’s like Jerome Powell is that hot-hand at the craps table. The guy’s rolling winner after winner—seven or 11 every time. Even better, he’s playing with house money. (Actually, it’s our money, but let’s not quibble over such things.) I know what you’re thinking. I’m thinking it too. This guy can’t lose. What do you do in such a situation? You put your money on the hot-hand. Right?
Two, three or 12
At some point everybody craps out. The dreaded roll of two, three or 12 takes you out of the game. Don’t get cross with me. I didn’t make the rules…. Investors this week saw the tapering news as the proverbial snake-eyes roll, the moment when we glimpsed Powell leaving the craps table.
Half full
Hey, Powell hasn’t left the casino. The Fed hans’t tapered yet. Why are you so anxious?
Drop me a line
How are you feeling about your portfolio? Are you thinking it’s time to take some chips off the table, or are you going to see how far this rally will take you? Are you still feeling bullish? If so, why? If not, please share. My email and Twitter handle are below.
***
Have a nice weekend, everyone. I’ll see you here on Monday.
***
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
[email protected]
As always, you can write to [email protected] or reply to this email with suggestions and feedback.
Today's reads
Big brewers toast the reopening of bars as sales recover—but your next round may cost you—Coins2Day
As a favorite chicken dish goes scarce, Britain looks for someone to blame—Coins2Day
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has some advice for CFOs about climate change—Coins2Day
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