It’s time for the Fed to get on with raising short-term interest rates from zero

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is finally expected to announce this week that he is ready to start winding down the extraordinary $120 billion per month of special pandemic stimulus he put in place last year to help encourage borrowing and spending. The “winding down” process, which will last until the middle of 2022, is just a precursor to a bigger decision: When will the Fed start to raise its short-term rate from zero, where it’s been since March of 2020? Maybe early 2023, we’re told.

Can we just get on with it please? I have previously mentioned here the William McChesney Martin nostrum that the Fed’s job is to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going. This time, we seem determined to wait until everyone is inebriated and passed out on the floor.

If anyone doubts that demand exceeds supply in today’s economy, they only need to try and order furniture, or, for that matter, get service at a restaurant. The optimists have told us we are just facing temporary supply displacement as people’s post-pandemic preferences shift, and that supply will eventually catch up with demand. But the facts suggest “eventually” may be a year or more away. Check out Anne Sraders and Lance Lambert on what’s driving soaring prices in the auto industry. Or this piece on housing prices. And if anybody thinks a newly energized labor movement isn’t going to bake bigger inflation into all future labor negotiations, they aren’t listening. 

There are lots of things on which I don’t agree with Peter Thiel. But on this, he has a point. We have an inflation problem. And it’s reaching crisis level. What are we waiting for?

Don’t get me wrong, I think Powell deserves kudos for a heroically quick response to the pandemic downturn. And I’m even in favor of seeing him reappointed. (No one whom President Biden chooses to replace him will unwind stimulus faster.) But good leadership means changing plans when the facts on the ground change. And they have. 

Meanwhile, as leaders gather in Glasgow to do what is likely to be precious little to address the climate problem, it’s worth thinking about the promise of green hydrogen. Marco Alvera gives the optimistic view, here.

And finally, Cruise CEO Dan Amman says he will have one million self-driving, shared-ride cars on the road by 2030. How’s he going to do it? Find out by listening to this week’s Leadership Next, on Apple or Spotify.

More news below.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
[email protected]

TOP NEWS

COP26 advances

Two notable things have already come out of the COP26 summit, which will run through the end of next week. Firstly, India has pledged to achieve net zero by 2070—two decades behind many other countries, but nonetheless the first net-zero target from one of the world's biggest polluters. Secondly, over 100 countries are committing to ending deforestation by 2030, though the enforcement mechanism remains unclear, and we've seen similar commitments before. Coins2Day

Novavax approval

Indonesia has become the first country to give emergency-use authorization to Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine. The protein-based vaccine is as effective as mRNA alternatives from Moderna and Pfizer, but a lot easier to transport and distribute due to its more modest refrigeration requirements. That could make it a crucial player in developing countries. Coins2Day

Hertz and Tesla

Remember when Hertz announced last week that it had placed a record order for 100,000 Tesla Model 3s? According to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, there's no contract yet. Coins2Day

FTC and A.I.

The Federal Trade Commission is reportedly going to take on Meredith Whittaker as an A.I. Policy adviser. Whittaker was the Google Open Research founder who left the company after organizing walkouts in protest of Google's handling of sexual harassment and other workplace ethics issues; she also co-founded and is the faculty director for the AI Now Institute at New York University, which works on the accountability of A.I. Systems. The Information

AROUND THE WATER COOLER

Pfizer strategy

Coins2Day's Erika Fry dives into the strategic thoughts of Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, who has spent most of his tenure in the context of the pandemic: "Pfizer is now doubling down on additional mRNA vaccines and therapeutics, which Bourla expects will yield rewards as early as next year. He hopes to see a successful mRNA cancer vaccine—the technology can be used to attack tumors—in three years." Coins2Day

Vax check

Vaccine verification apps could help businesses track employees' COVID vaccination status. Prices range from $1 to $6 per employee per month, which is a cost that can really add up, especially for small businesses—so states such as New York and Hawaii are providing free alternatives. Coins2Day

Stablecoin report

The U.S.'s top financial regulators have asked Congress to legislate so stablecoin issuers are regulated similarly to banks. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: "Current oversight is inconsistent and fragmented, with some stablecoins effectively falling outside the regulatory perimeter." (What's a stablecoin? Explainer here.) Coins2Day

Dow 36,000

The Dow has hit 36,000, as predicted in the 1999 book entitled, er, Dow 36,000. Well, almost as predicted—the book's authors expected it to happen in three to five years, not 22. Here's an interview with co-author James Glassman. Coins2Day

This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.