England is about to drop its remaining COVID-19 restrictions, despite the fact that tens of thousands of people there are still testing positive for the coronavirus each day—including, on Sunday, Queen Elizabeth II herself.
As U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson tells it, the new “living with COVID” strategy—which will likely include an end to free rapid and PCR testing for those under the age of 80—is about “encouraging personal responsibility” rather than having state-imposed rules about things like self-isolating when infected.
“We’re in a different world. I think it is it is important that people should feel confident again and people should feel able to go back to work in the normal way,” Johnson told the BBC Sunday, ahead of Monday’s expected announcement.
Indeed, the shift will take place on the downward slope of the U.K.’s Omicron wave, with infection and death rates dropping significantly. In an echo of the strategy in Denmark, where restrictions were also recently lifted, Johnson suggested they might need to be reimposed if pandemic realities demand it. However, health experts are appalled at the implications of the English changes, in particular the removal of free testing for budgetary reasons—an issue that is reportedly causing a last-minute stand-off between Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor (i.e. Finance chief) Rishi Sunak.
“So much is uncertain still”
“The government cannot wave a magic wand and pretend the threat has disappeared entirely,” said Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the National Health Service (NHS) Confederation, on Friday.
According to the organization’s polling, a whopping 79% of NHS leaders disagree with the decision to end free testing. “So much is uncertain still, including our long-term immunity and the emergence of future strains, which requires a solid testing infrastructure and clear guidance around self-isolation to remain in place,” said Taylor.
The British Medical Association agreed, with BMA council chair Chaand Nagpaul saying: “The decision to remove all restrictions is not based on current evidence and is premature.”
“It clearly hasn’t been guided by data or done in consultation with the healthcare profession,” Nagpaul said Friday. “Scrapping all restrictions and allowing the infection to spread in an unmonitored and unfettered manner would be damaging to the health of millions, including for those who go on to suffer Long Covid symptoms.”
The World Health Organization also chipped in, with COVID envoy David Nabarro describing the government’s decision as “really very unwise indeed,” and expressing fears that the U.K.’s decision will “create a bit of a domino effect around the world.”
On Monday, prominent medical experts published an open letter to key government advisers Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance, asking them to “clarify the scientific advice underpinning these policy decisions.”
“We do not believe there is a solid scientific basis for the policy. It is almost certain to increase the circulation of the virus and remove the visibility of emerging variants of concern,” the letter read. “Lack of testing is not only detrimental to controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and detecting new variants, it also puts people who develop Long Covid at a great disadvantage by not having a confirmation of their infection, which is integral to the diagnosis, support and care they need to receive.”
“An attempt to distract”
Some observers, including the opposition Labour Party, have linked Johnson’s plans with his efforts to wriggle out of the consequences of the “Partygate” scandal that has the prime minister himself under police investigation for breaking COVID rules. Despite now being extremely unpopular with the British people, Johnson has so far managed to avoid being kicked out by his Conservative party, and he would like to maintain that situation.
Conservative lawmakers tend to oppose COVID restrictions, so giving them what they want—a month early, as the restrictions were due to expire in late March anyway—is seen as a way to discourage them from sending enough letters to Tory grandees to trigger a leadership election.
“Boris Johnson is declaring victory before the war is over, in an attempt to distract from the police knocking at his door,” tweeted Labour shadow health secretary Wes Streeting on Sunday. “Now is not the time to start charging for tests or weaken sick pay, when people are still being asked to behave responsibly.”
Johnson has the ability to set health policy for England, but the other U.K. Nations—Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland—set their own health agendas. The Labour-led Welsh government on Monday also described Johnson’s plan as “premature and reckless”.
“Testing has played a pivotal role in breaking chains of transmission of COVID, and has acted as a powerful surveillance tool helping us to detect and respond rapidly to emerging variants. It is clearly essential that this continues,” it said. “Any decision to effectively turn off the tap on our National Testing Programme with no future plans in place to reactivate it would put people at risk. This is not acceptable.”
“In Wales, we will continue to make decisions to protect the health of people based on the scientific evidence available to us.”
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