As Russia’s economy is hit by ‘financial war,’ a frustrated Putin is more dangerous than ever

Russia’s ruble has tanked after the West’s freezing of Bank of Russia assets and partial disconnection of the country from the SWIFT payment network. It fell as much as 41% against the dollar before the central bank stepped in by raising its key interest rate from 9.5% to 20% and telling exporters to offload 80% of their foreign currency reserves. “External conditions for the Russian economy have drastically changed,” the Bank of Russia said this morning, accurately.

“This is in effect a financial war now,” wrote Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid in this morning’s note, while Lombard Odier strategist Homin Lee said, “We’re just a few days into a kind of once-in-a-lifetime reorientation in the global order.” Russian billionaires are not amused.

The myriad ways in which Vladimir Putin has messed up could fill a book—and will do so many times over—so let’s switch to bullet points. Apart from destroying Russia’s economy for what he sold to his people as a mere peacekeeping mission, Putin has…

• Brought the West together to a degree that probably most people in the West didn’t think possible. (The “weakness” debate now appears settled.)
• Brought more NATO firepower to his front door.
• Turned Russia into a global pariah, with even China’s Foreign Ministry saying this morning that “China and Russia are strategic partners, but not allies.”
• Turned his enemy Volodymyr “I need ammunition, not a ride” Zelenskyy into a global icon. As intelligence expert “The Grugq” quipped on Twitter: “KGB pensioner loses information war to comedian with a smartphone.”
• Sparked the remilitarization of nearby Germany—a profound psychic shift for that country, which has for a generation seen its weak army as a virtue, while opting to appease Russia.

The invasion itself doesn’t seem to be going very well for Putin, either, with logistical problems and fierce Ukrainian resistance so far stopping his army from taking any major city. As my former Politico colleague Zoya Sheftalovich put it on the weekend, Putin may have been emboldened to invade by the West’s impotent response to the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan last year, “but he got Afghanistan in 1979. Ukrainians aren’t rolling over or welcoming back an old friend. They, and their president, are digging in for war.”

All of which makes Putin more dangerous than ever. The West is doing everything it can to avoid joining a shooting war with Russia, but the steps it has taken instead have nonetheless prompted Putin to put Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert. His ally/vassal Belarus has also decided to host Russian nuclear missiles. Given how the dictator has over the past week shattered assumptions about what he is and isn’t capable of, there is every reason to be worried. And even if he doesn’t press that button, there’s a strong chance he will increase the violence of his invasion.

“It’s fair to say that the stakes are enormously high,” wrote Reid. “If you were assessing the current situation, you would now have to at least consider some pretty bleak outcomes.” Indeed. So here’s hoping something positive comes of talks between the Ukrainian and Russian sides, which began at the Belarus-Ukraine border this morning.

More news below—and speaking of bleak outcomes, the latest UN report on climate change landed minutes ago.

David Meyer
@superglaze
[email protected]

TOP NEWS

Sudden divestments

BP’s share price dropped 7% after the energy giant decided to offload its stake in Russia’s Rosneft. Norway’s Equinor is also divesting from its Russian joint ventures. Reuters

Musk to Ukraine

SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service has expanded coverage to Ukraine, in response to a plea from the country. However, as Coins2Day’ s Eamon Barrett explains, using the service requires the importation of Starlink satellite dishes, so it’s not going to be so simple to start using. Coins2Day

Short-selling

The SEC has proposed a new rule that would force hedge funds and other investors to be more transparent about their short-selling, so the regulator can publicize aggregate data about targeted companies. Financial Times

COVID origin

New research backs the theory that the COVID pandemic originated in a Wuhan wet market. University of Arizona researcher Michael Worobey: “When you look at all of the evidence together, it’s an extraordinarily clear picture that the pandemic started at the Huanan market.” New York Times

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

Hong Kong COVID

Hong Kong’s unprecedented COVID surge is forcing its government to abandon key pillars of its COVID-zero strategy, such as sending patients with mild cases to hospital or isolation facilities, and quarantining close contacts of confirmed cases. Coins2Day

German weed

Germany is set to legalize the recreational cannabis industry, in line with coalition members’ campaigning promises last year. But while the mood in the sector is “euphoric,” there are still many missing details about what legalization will look like in practice. Coins2Day

“Uninvestable” Ericsson

The Swedish telecom giant Ericsson may become “uninvestable” owing to its alleged involvement in paying terrorist group ISIS for access to transport routes. Those allegations have been somewhat firmed up by the leak of an internal Ericsson report detailing the company’s efforts to keep its business afloat in Iraq. Coins2Day

Housing market

The U.S.’s spring housing market looks as if it will confound conventional wisdom by running hot, writes Coins2Day’ s Lance Lambert: “There’s a chance this goes down as the hottest spring homebuying season ever.” Coins2Day

This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.