Putin’s Victory Day does not seem to have been a turning point in Russia’s Ukraine war after all

Much of the world celebrated Victory in Europe Day yesterday, but Russia celebrates its Victory Day on May 9. And expectations were high regarding what President Vladimir Putin might do on this commemoration of Russia’s victory over the Nazis in 1945.

Would Putin formally declare war on Ukraine, thus unlocking vast reserves of former conscripts to prop up his faltering campaign? Would he declare victory, perhaps based on Russia holding much of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region? Would the dictator take his nuclear threats to the next level?

As it turned out, no. Putin’s speech played like a greatest hits of his now-standard rhetoric: Kyiv is run by neo-Nazis and was trying to go nuclear; NATO was weaponizing territories on Russia’s border, and the invasion was “a preemptive strike at the aggression”; the West has abandoned traditional values, but Russia will never do so. At least at the time of publication, today has not proved to be the turning point in Russia’s war that many feared or hoped it might be.

That fits with what we’ve been seeing in the past couple weeks. After a pretty escalatory few days in late April, where both Russia and the West heated up their rhetoric, the conflict seems to be in a kind of holding pattern, in which Russia occasionally raises the specter of nuclear conflict, but the West nonetheless refuses to back down—and in which Russia keeps bombarding Ukraine’s east with decreasing precision.

That decreased precision is down to the depletion of Russia’s high-end weaponry, according to the British defense ministry. And there’s the rub: Russia’s army is getting worn down, and it can’t keep going forever, even if Putin is (as theorized by CIA Director William Burns in a Financial Times interview) convinced that his gamble might still pay off.

Sometimes something not happening is an event in itself. And by the way, it’s comforting to see Burns say in that FT piece that the intelligence community sees no “practical evidence at this point of Russian planning, deployment, or even potential use of tactical nuclear weapons.” More news below.

David Meyer
@superglaze
[email protected]

TOP NEWS

Russian reserves

Hundreds of billions of dollars of Russia’s reserves are currently frozen outside the country, and the EU’s foreign policy chief thinks they should be seized, to pay for Ukraine’s eventual reconstruction. Josep Borrell believes there’s precedent to be found in the seizure of Afghanistan’s central bank assets, though let’s just say that was a pretty controversial move in itself. Financial Times

Treatment costs

Some major hospital chains would like to jack up their prices by as much as 15%, which would mean higher premiums. It’s much more than typical increases, and the chains argue that their hand has been forced by rising nurse salaries. Wall Street Journal

“Different approach”

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has warned his youthful workforce that they were about to experience a different period to the bull run that’s characterized their careers thus far. Hiring is now a “privilege” at Uber, and the company’s focus has shifted from profitability to free cash flow. Khosrowshahi: “In some places we’ll have to pull back to sprint ahead. We will absolutely have to do more with less.” Coins2Day

Hong Kong

Pro-Beijing hardliner John Lee has been “elected”⁠—he was the only candidate⁠—as Hong Kong’s new chief executive. Carrie Lam’s replacement is her former security chief, who was instrumental in pushing the extradition bill that sparked massive protests in 2019, and who is still under U.S. Sanctions for the authorities’ heavy-handed response to those protests. BBC

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

Long COVID

Long COVID could affect over a billion people within a few years, according to COVID researcher Arijit Chakravarty (who also supports official warnings of 100 million U.S. Infections this coming fall and winter). Coins2Day’s Erin Prater: “Long COVID is likely an umbrella term for a combination of issues and conditions: People who have long-term COVID infections who are able to continue to spread the disease; people whose COVID aftereffects clear up after a few weeks; and people with long COVID itself, in which people aren’t infectious, but experience all kinds of symptoms for much longer.” Coins2Day

Crypto 401(k) plans

Coins2Day’ s Shawn Tully on the dangers that await companies that give in to workers’ demands for cryptocurrency-friendly 401(k) plans: “We’re about to witness a tense tug-of-war between what companies think they can safely proffer in their retirement plans, and what workers want.” Coins2Day

Bitcoin drop

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are having a bad time, showing yet again how their trajectory is increasingly in sync with that of tech stocks. Coins2Day

Southeast Asia

Consumers in Southeast Asia could be particularly badly hit by rising food prices, said economist Mohamed Faiz Nagutha, who warned of widespread unrest if there’s “a big shock jump.” CNBC

This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.