• Home
  • Latest
  • Coins2Day 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia
Commentarysuccess

Are billionaires just lucky?

By
Ash Ali
Ash Ali
and
Hasan Kubba
Hasan Kubba
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Ash Ali
Ash Ali
and
Hasan Kubba
Hasan Kubba
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 1, 2022, 11:37 AM ET
Entrepreneurs systematically overestimate their own skills when they’ve been successful–but luck alone can't explain how a minority go on to create several successful businesses.
Entrepreneurs systematically overestimate their own skills when they’ve been successful–but luck alone can't explain how a minority go on to create several successful businesses.Christopher Pike—Bloomberg/Getty Images

All eyes are on Elon Musk. His every tweet and move generate a metric ton of headlines. He’s a highly polarizing figure, but for many like us who are immersed in entrepreneurship and business success, he is a superhero, an inspiration, and a role model all wrapped up in one.

He is admired for his seemingly superhuman work ethic, his ability to somehow claw back success from the brink of failure and bankruptcy, to disrupt and change entire trillion-dollar industries, and his uncanny ability to not only predict the future, but to make it.

From PayPal to SpaceX, and Tesla to Neuralink, his string of wildly successful entrepreneurial ventures are unparalleled.

But to his detractors, Musk owes much of his success to an accident of birth. “Of course he’s wildly successful,” they’d exclaim, “he was born white in apartheid South Africa to an extremely wealthy father who owned an emerald mine.” 

In other words, there’s nothing to admire. He got extremely lucky.

So who’s right?

Do we have a lot to learn from the world’s richest man, or does luck indeed play such a pivotal role in success?

What about others? Warren Buffett? Bill Gates? Oprah Winfrey?

Was it luck that took them to their heady heights and billionaire status? Or was it hard work and effort?

It’s a touchy subject. It goes straight to the roots of our beliefs about “deserved-ness” in society. These two extreme positions, that it was either all luck, and therefore unfair and un-earned, or all hard work, and therefore fair and deserved, are at two polar opposites of the spectrum.

Let’s start with Warren Buffett, known as the Oracle of Omaha for his wisdom and perspicacity, and his unrivaled skill in long-term investing. If you read his biography, he basically spends all of his time reading financial reports and thinking about what to invest in. However, Buffett himself acknowledges the fortunate circumstances that fed his success: 

“I’ve had a lot of luck. Just being born in the United States in the 1930s … I didn’t have anything to do with picking the United States! And having decent genes for certain things … In my case I was sort of wired for capital allocation.”

So, the location and timing of his birth, along with his natural talent, is what he considers to be the major catalysts of his success, factors that were totally out of his control. 

He goes on: “Just in my own case, I was born in 1930 with two sisters that have every bit the intelligence and drive, but didn’t have the same opportunities … If I’d been Black, my future would have been entirely different. If I’d been female, my future would have been entirely different.” 

So, he’s lucky to be born the right color and gender to benefit, as well. Did Warren Buffett work hard? Did he put in his 10,000 hours? Absolutely, he did. But he also got lucky in finding what he’s naturally good at early in his life and having the inclination to enjoy it.

How about Bill Gates? Did you know that he was one of only a handful of teenagers in America who had access to a computer in the late 1960s. Did you also know that his mother was on the board of IBM, and helped him get the contract that led to a lucrative relationship with them for his fledgling Microsoft Corporation?

Ok, then what about Oprah Winfrey?

Surely, she is testament to the power of the American dream. Her rags-to-riches story is literally that: She went from wearing a potato sack as a dress in her impoverished 1950s rural Mississippi childhood, to becoming one of the wealthiest and most influential people in the world.  

What luck did she have in her favor?

What most don’t know about Oprah is that she was a child genius, with a bewildering talent for reading and speaking at a very early age. She would speak at churches at the age of three in front of huge congregations! She was a natural on stage, on radio, and on television.

So, does pointing out the luck that these celebrated figures got somehow invalidate their success? Does that mean that we have nothing to learn from them, and that success stories and case studies are just an amusing peek into the lives of the rich and the famous or the brands and companies that made it big?

No.

Success is always about people leveraging their strengths and the circumstances that they have along the journey. 

We call these unfair advantages.

In fact, we all have unfair advantages. There is no such thing as a level playing field. There’s no “even” starting line in life. There are always factors that give somebody a head start, or a tailwind that propels them forward.

In our new book The Unfair Advantage, we break down these edges into five categories. We call it the MILES Framework. It’s an acronym that stands for:

Money: The capital you have, or that you can easily raise. 

Intelligence and Insight: IQ, EQ, and creativity.

Location and Luck: Being in the right place at the right time. 

Education and Expertise: Your formal education and also your self-learning.

Status: Your personal brand, including your network. It’s how you’re perceived.

Here’s the kicker: Each advantage (or disadvantage) is a double-edged sword. For example, having little money can make you more creative and resourceful.

We all have unfair advantages. If you can identify and leverage yours, you can find your own success, however you define success for yourself.

When it comes to Elon Musk, it would be inaccurate to portray him as simply lucky. If you dive deeper into his story, you see abuse from his father, an unhappy childhood, and teenage years doing hard manual labor and scrimping and saving with his newly divorced mother once they’d moved to Canada.

As entrepreneur Michael Sonnenfeldt said in a recent interview, not every entrepreneur appreciates why they were successful, because for every person who has a plan, there’s always luck that plays a role too. It’s just a statistical thing that the number of people with two successful businesses is dramatically smaller than the number of people with one. For people to have three and four successes gets down to the one in a thousand entrepreneurs. 

Entrepreneurs systematically overestimate their own skills when they’ve been successful. There’s a real comeuppance when they sell their first successful business and assume they’ll be just as successful in the next one.

And it’s for that reason alone that I believe that you can’t fairly say that Elon’s success is a simple matter of luck. You don’t get that lucky four times in a row.

The old debate about hard work v. Luck takes on a new dimension when you start to see it through the lens of unfair advantages. Musk, like all successful people, simply leveraged his.

Ash Ali and Hasan Kubba are the co-authors of The Unfair Advantage (St. Martin’s Press, June 7)

The opinions expressed in Coins2Day.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of Coins2Day.

More must-read commentary published by Coins2Day:

  • Why a nurse’s recent homicide conviction could make America’s hospitals even less safe
  • The plastic elephant in Amazon’s boardroom
  • Overturning Roe v. Wade is more than just an assault on reproductive rights
  • Career hoarding is on the rise—but it comes at a cost
  • A recent case could undermine the rules that have been protecting taxpayer money from fraud since the time of Lincoln
Sign up for the Coins2Day Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.
About the Authors
By Ash Ali
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Hasan Kubba
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Coins2Day Editors
October 20, 2025
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Coins2Day 500
  • Global 500
  • Coins2Day 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • Future 50
  • World’s Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
Sections
  • Finance
  • Leadership
  • Success
  • Tech
  • Asia
  • Europe
  • Environment
  • Coins2Day Crypto
  • Health
  • Retail
  • Lifestyle
  • Politics
  • Newsletters
  • Magazine
  • Features
  • Commentary
  • Mpw
  • CEO Initiative
  • Conferences
  • Personal Finance
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Coins2Day Brand Studio
  • Coins2Day Analytics
  • Coins2Day Conferences
  • Business Development
About Us
  • About Us
  • Editorial Calendar
  • Press Center
  • Work At Coins2Day
  • Diversity And Inclusion
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Most Popular

placeholder alt text
Economy
'I just don't have a good feeling about this': Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted and everyone's now looking at the wrong alarm
By Eleanor PringleJanuary 31, 2026
20 hours ago
placeholder alt text
Success
Alexis Ohanian walked out of the LSAT 20 minutes in, went to a Waffle House, and decided he was 'gonna invent a career.' He founded Reddit
By Preston ForeJanuary 31, 2026
12 hours ago
placeholder alt text
Success
Ryan Serhant starts work at 4:30 a.m.—he says most people don’t achieve their dreams because ‘what they really want is just to be lazy’
By Preston ForeJanuary 31, 2026
15 hours ago
placeholder alt text
Future of Work
Ford CEO has 5,000 open mechanic jobs with up to 6-figure salaries from the shortage of manually skilled workers: 'We are in trouble in our country'
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJanuary 31, 2026
12 hours ago
placeholder alt text
Economy
Right before Trump named Warsh to lead the Fed, Powell seemed to respond to some of his biggest complaints about the central bank
By Jason MaJanuary 30, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
AI
Top engineers at Anthropic, OpenAI say AI now writes 100% of their code—with big implications for the future of software development jobs
By Beatrice NolanJanuary 29, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Coins2Day Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Coins2Day Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.


Latest in Commentary

Economygeopolitics
BRICS could become a new pillar of global governance—if its rapid growth doesn’t erode its newfound clout
By Brian WongJanuary 31, 2026
5 hours ago
taxi
Commentaryregulation
America’s AI regulatory patchwork is crushing startups and helping China
By James Richardson and Eric TanenblattJanuary 30, 2026
2 days ago
EuropeLetter from London
Struggling to remain relevant during the AI watercooler chat? Talk about your latest ‘new collar’ hire
By Kamal AhmedJanuary 29, 2026
2 days ago
trump
Commentaryregulation
Trump is driving capital out of capitalism
By Andrew BeharJanuary 29, 2026
3 days ago
brooks
CommentaryInsurance
John Hancock CEO: We all have a role in driving better health outcomes for Americans
By Brooks TingleJanuary 29, 2026
3 days ago
wystrach
Commentarystart-ups
The real promise of AI isn’t fewer jobs, it’s cheaper thinking
By Michael WystrachJanuary 29, 2026
3 days ago