Switching jobs won’t get workers quite the pay bump it did last year—but that’s not stopping many from looking for a new gig anyway.
Taking a job at a new firm has long been considered the best way to get a substantive raise—and it does still come with a larger pay bump than what “job stayers” are receiving, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. But the premium has fallen since last year, when companies fighting to attract workers in a tight labor market pushed wage growth for new hires to heights not seen in decades.
In March 2023, the typical worker who got a new job saw a 7.3% pay bump, compared with 5.9% for those who stayed put. February’s wage growth was even smaller, at 6.7%. Compare that with July and August of 2022, when typical job switchers received 8.5% and 8.4% raises, respectively, and those who stayed saw 5.9% and 5.6% bumps.
“The job market has shifted significantly in the last six months…the power has somewhat shifted back to the employer,” says Paula Mathias-Fryer, senior director at SLO Partners, an economic development initiative in California. “However, there is still an opportunity to increase wages by changing jobs.”
In fact, job switchers are still netting higher raises than they were this time a year ago, meaning it doesn’t hurt to look around. But job hoppers likely missed the wage growth apex, according to the Fed’s data, at least for now. In 2019, for example, wage growth for job switchers ranged between 3.9% and 4.5%.
Despite layoffs at high-profile companies in the tech and finance sectors that have shaken some workers’ confidence in finding a new role, the labor market remains strong. And slightly less generous raises for job seekers don’t seem to be swaying many from looking: While the quit rate—or how many people voluntarily leave their jobs—has dropped compared with a year ago, it remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Still, job seekers may want to be careful amid a slowing economy and recession fears. Job openings fell to their lowest level in nearly two years in March, while layoffs rose, according to the U.S. Labor Department.
“Those securing new roles now could be at risk of a ‘last one in, first one out’ scenario, should the economic landscape change,” says Mathias-Fryer.
That said, three-quarters of workers are planning to look for a new job in the next year, according to a recent report from career development site The Muse. That’s up from just 65% in 2022, even as the so-called Great Resignation captures fewer headlines and economic uncertainty abounds.
What has changed are the types of jobs workers are looking for, says Sara Madera, a career coach in New York City.
“Previously, the conversations were centered around each individual’s passions, growth, and preference for work-for-home,” says Madera. “Now there is a sense of practicality and wanting to ensure that a job switch will be secure and not end in a layoff.”