The backpacks and sneakers could be a little more beat-up when the school bell rings this fall. A new survey by Deloitte estimates back-to-school spending is set to fall for the first time in nine years in 2023, with average spending per student projected to be down 10%. That’s going to result in a retail shortfall of more than $3 billion compared to last year.
The overall spend is expected to be $31.2 billion this year, which works out to an average spend per child of $597, compared to $661 in 2022 and $612 in 2021. While school supplies will see 20% year-over-year growth, Deloitte says, spending on clothing and accessories is expected to drop 14% and parents will spend 13% less on tech products.
The pullback in spending comes as families continue to struggle with inflation, and follows a 23.7% increase in the cost of school supplies over the past two years. Some 30% of the parents Deloitte spoke with said they’re in worse financial shape than they were last year—and more than half expected the economy to get weaker by the end of the year.
“With budgets strained this season, continued high prices could dampen the excitement of the back-to-school season for many families,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chair of Deloitte LLP and U.S. Retail, wholesale, and distribution and consumer products leader, in a statement. “Parents are likely to be strategic about their spending to help ensure children are set up for success at the start of the school year by renewing school supplies but perhaps holding off on new clothing until needed.”
Deloitte spoke with 1,212 parents with at least one child attending school in grades K–12 this fall for the study. The company has been tracking back-to-school spending since at least 2011.
The upside for retailers is planned back-to-school spending is still higher than it was before the pandemic, showing a 12.2% increase compared to 2019. And parents will be out looking for deals early, with 59% of spending expected to occur by the end of July.