The season of giving is going to be especially generous this year, according to a new survey from Deloitte.
Anticipated spending this year during the Thanksgiving week period (which includes both Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is up 13% from a year ago. The average consumer will spend $567 in that time frame, with eight out of 10 planning to shop, Deloitte reports in its 2023 holiday retail survey.
Black Friday could see the biggest boost, with consumers expected to spend an average of $169 online, compared to just $121 online in 2019. In-store shopping will remain significant, though it’s expected to be 5% lower this year than in 2022, dropping from $145 to $138, as consumers haven’t been wowed by the advertised doorbusters and have less tolerance for crowds.
A big part of the surge will be courtesy of millennials, who are expected to spend twice as much as Generation X over the weekend and will increase their spending by 38% compared to last year.
“Millennials have taken over as the largest share of Black Friday–Cyber Monday spending,” said Stephen Rogers, managing director of Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center, Deloitte Services LP, in a statement. “This year, retailers have an opportunity to better connect with millennials, who grew up heading to midnight doorbuster-deal events. Millennials are also more likely to self-gift, so retailers have any opportunity to entice these shoppers to throw a couple of extra gifts in their baskets.”
Some retailers, however, are a little less optimistic than the report suggests. Lowe’s, Best Buy, and Kohl’s have all cut their holiday sales forecasts, saying cost-conscious shoppers are less likely to splurge and will be only buying bargains.
“Consumer demand has been even more uneven and difficult to predict,” said Corie Barry, Best Buy CEO, in an earnings report Tuesday. “Based on the sales trends in Q3 and so far in November, we believe it is prudent to lower our annual revenue outlook…We are excited for the important holiday season and are prepared for a customer who is very deal-focused with promotions and deals for all budgets, new shopping experiences, an expanded product assortment, and fast and free fulfillment.”