Will AI increase inequality as much as the last tech boom? Maybe not

First, will AI lead to fewer jobs? On this, Autor’s answer is unqualified: No. At least not anytime soon. “The industrialized world is awash in jobs, and it’s going to stay that way…Due to plummeting birth rates and a cratering labor force, a comparable labor shortage is unfolding across the industrialized world (including in China). That’s not a prediction. It’s a demographic fact.”

A second question—and to me the more interesting one—is this: Will AI continue the trend toward increasing inequality that accompanied the last wave of technology? Here, Autor’s answer is more qualified: Maybe not. But it’s the deep analysis that makes this long read worth the time. My (paltry) summary below.

In the early days of the Information Age, there were many who argued that computers would “flatten economic hierarchies by democratizing information.” Instead, the opposite happened. Says Autor: “Information, it turns out, is merely an input for a more consequential economic function, decision-making, which is the province of elite experts—typically the minority of U.S. Adults who hold college or graduate degrees.” As a result, the premium paid to experts skyrocketed, and inequality increased.

But AI offers a way to expand decision-making expertise. It enables a larger group of workers—and here’s a key phrase: “equipped with necessary foundational skills”—to “perform higher-stake decision-making tasks currently arrogated to elite experts, such as doctors, lawyers, software engineers and college professors. In essence, AI—used well—can assist with restoring the middle-skill, middle-class heart” of the labor market.

Autor compares AI to a pneumatic nail gun in the hands of a roofer. It doesn’t eliminate the demand for roofers, but it greatly increases their productivity. He also uses nurse practitioners as an easy-to-understand example. Armed with appropriate AI tools, their ability to do work once limited to doctors greatly expands.

Is Autor’s analysis correct? It’s still early days for AI, and there no doubt will be surprises along the way. But there is reason to be optimistic. 

And check out Jessica Mathews’ latest probing piece on why the Elon Musk-inspired vision of a transportation Hyperloop is running aground.

Other news below.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
[email protected]

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This edition of CEO Daily was curated by Nicholas Gordon.