The runway is clear for the stock market to keep powering higher once the US presidential election is decided, says Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin.
The firm’s chief US equity strategist expects the S&P 500 Index to trade around the 6,000 level a year from now, he said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The forecast implies a roughly 5% gain from Monday’s record close of about 5,719 for the index, which is up around 20% this year.
But first, he said, investors will probably have to navigate some market turbulence in the weeks ahead as the election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump looks set to come down to the wire. Historically speaking, it’s a period when volatility tends to rise and equities prices decline, he said.
“There is uncertainty, by definition, around the election, so that would be from a near-term perspective some concern,” Kostin said. “That is usually resolved with the election. As a result, equities over time have tended to rally post elections.”
After lifting his S&P 500 forecast three times since publishing his original call for 2024 late last year, the strategist reiterated his most recent year-end target of 5,600, citing the near-term gyrations he expects from the race for the White House. The average target among strategists tracked by Bloomberg currently stands near 5,523 after a rush of upgrades by various firms this year.
Meanwhile, on Goldman Sachs’ trading desk, Scott Rubner sees the S&P 500 reaching 6,000 as soon as later this year. The managing director for global markets and tactical specialist also anticipates choppy trading in the coming weeks but sees the index riding a “FOMO year-end rally” following the election.
Kostin sees opportunities in mid-cap stocks, pointing to a “long track record” of better performance than large- and small-cap shares, lower multiples and better value. He also cited their outperformance following interest-rate cuts in the subsequent three- and 12-month periods.
“The way we focus most attention right now is on mid-cap stocks, because mid-cap stocks is the area of the market that gets the least attention” from many portfolio managers, he said. “That’s an area that really is likely to outperform over the coming year.”
Strong corporate earnings will be the primary driver of equities in the coming months, in Kostin’s view, while he says concerns over a weakening trend in labor-market data are overblown. Goldman Sachs economists attribute much of the recent rise in unemployment to increased labor supply and temporary friction from new immigrants, rather than an abrupt drop in the demand for labor.
Late last week, Kostin’s team said slowing growth in labor costs bodes well for corporate profit margins, and will have a positive impact on US stocks, especially for those of companies with high labor costs.