Gold is having a moment. The precious metal has once again climbed to record highs—this time briefly eclipsing the $2,740 per ounce mark Monday morning—as markets continue to monitor rising tensions in the Middle East, U.S. Election uncertainties, and future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Historically, it has not paid off to be a goldbug—the term for someone bullish on gold, perhaps because they’re skeptical of fiat currency or worried about a broader economic collapse. In the last year, however, the yellow metal has risen roughly 30%, and a growing chorus of experts have emerged who think it’s poised to keep climbing over the long term.
Bank of America analysts have joined those bullish on bullion. The commodity has likely been tactically overbought, they said in a September note. Nonetheless, they believe a global shift toward higher price levels—a move from a “2% to [a] 5% world,” as they put it—will force investors to counter rising prices and volatility.
“In our view, gold is an overlooked, unmatched portfolio hedge,” they said, “with an average correlation of -0.3% to the S&P 500 for the past 60 years.”
This year, however, gold and stocks have risen together. The surge in demand, meanwhile, has largely appeared independent of traditional fundamentals. The rush is less about shoppers snapping up Costco gold bars and likely much more about countries trying to decrease their dependence on the almighty U.S. Dollar.
Central banks are on pace to buy more than 3,000 tons of gold from 2022 to the end of this year, BofA noted, the fastest clip in history. China led the early rush, going on an 18-month buying spree largely viewed as an attempt to diversify its reserves away from the dollar and guard against currency depreciation.
“What is at stake here is not just the erosion of the dollar’s dominant role but also a gradual change in the operation of the global system,” Mohamed El-Erian, the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Monday.
Should retail investors add gold to their portfolio?
Though it comes with potential pitfalls, retail investors can also get in on the rush. Physical gold, typically in the form of bars or coins, is sometimes available from a bank or brokerage. If not, other options include precious metal dealers and even Costco, where gold and silver bars have flown off the shelves.
For those wishing to avoid the hassle and expense of storing gold, not to mention transaction fees and insurance, popular exchange-traded funds like SPDR Gold Shares are an easier way to gain exposure to the metal.
Liquidity, however, can be quite tricky. Rob Haworth, a senior vice president and investment strategist at U.S. Bank, generally warns investors against making bullion a big part of their portfolios.
“We see some tactical value in it,” he told Coins2Day last month. “But from a long-term fundamental perspective, we’re not clear how it would actually contribute to a financial plan.”
Maybe save the Costco runs for pallets of paper towels and $1.50 hot dogs.
