Although Polymarket still shows a big lead for Donald Trump, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market added a message warning users about how long it could take for payouts on their bets.
A banner atop the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market suggests we may not know until Inauguration Day who the next president will really be.
“This Presidential market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate,” according to Polymarket. “In the unlikely event that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until inauguration and resolve to whoever gets inaugurated.”
Polymarket has since opened a market that is resolved solely by who gets inaugurated, set to happen on Jan. 20, 2025. Currently, that market shows a 56% chance of Trump being inaugurated, with Kamala Harris at about 42%.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a given event, and resolve only when that event actually happens. Polymarket users buy shares depending on which outcome they think is more likely. Share prices or “odds” rise and fall depending on demand. So if the event happens the way the trader predicted, the contract or “bet” will rise to $1 and pay out—or fall to $0 if it does not.
While the odds of a Trump win have shrunk on some prediction markets, Polymarket shows a 58% chance as of Monday of the former president winning the election over Harris.
In late October, Polymarket admitted one French national with “extensive trading experience” was responsible for about $28 million that was dumped into the presidential election market.
This subsequently swayed the odds in Trump’s favor, but Polymarket said it found no evidence of market manipulation, instead saying the trader was “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.” However, political scientists, pollsters, and other prediction market experts continue to view the issue as market manipulation.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to Coins2Day’s request for comment.
Polymarket potentially keeping the market open until Inauguration Day could also suggest the election won’t be settled by steps taken by Congress in December and January to certify results, including a joint session on Jan. 6 when they count the electoral votes.
When will we know official election results?
While it’s nearly impossible to predict when the election results will be finalized, there is a certain level of likelihood Trump’s camp will contest election results if they don’t appear to turn out in his favor. After all, he did the same thing following the 2020 election, which led to recounts and the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
That means having clearcut election results tomorrow—or even this week—are unlikely.
“With the current climate, it’s likely we won’t have a clear outcome on election night, especially given the legal and logistical complexities involved,” Adrienne Uthe, founder and strategic adviser for communications and risk management firm Kronus Communications, told Coins2Day. “Expect recounts, legal challenges, and potential delays in key battleground states.”
Polymarket is hedging on this by extending the market timeline until the inauguration, she said, which reflects the uncertainty about when a final call will be made.
But Michael J. Montgomery, a political scientist and former diplomat who teaches at the University of Michigan—Dearborn, instead thinks a “reliable call” of the race by reputable media organizations could be made as early as midnight Eastern Time on Tuesday, if not before.
That is unless the race comes down to Pennsylvania, which can’t count early or mail-in votes until Election Day, he said. Still, Montgomery said to expect some contests by the Trump campaign.
“The Trump campaign and its allies have invested so much in preparing to contest results in so many states that multiple challenges are a certainty,” he said. “I doubt, however, they will be any more successful this time than they were in 2020.”
Polymarket’s warning suggests the cryptocurrency-based prediction market thinks results could be successfully challenged, but Montgomery said he thinks they’re wrong. What’s more, the certification of the election will be on Jan. 6, 2025, two full weeks ahead of the inauguration, he said.
A 2022 change to the electoral vote process as a bipartisan reaction to the 2021 insurrection will be used this year, and one new condition will be particularly important this year: The vice president has no power to accept or reject Electoral College votes while presiding over the joint session of Congress. The new procedures also make it more difficult to raise objections about vote count, among other changes, according to Roll Call.
In any event, though, it’s best not to expect concrete results early on.
“This election could be a marathon, not a sprint,” Uthe said. “So, patience and vigilance will be essential.”
Update: On the day after the election, Polymarket users who bet on this market were paid out after the AP, Fox, and NBC called the race for Trump.