Good morning. Alicia Adamczyk here filling in for Sheryl. Prior to this year’s presidential election, tariffs weren’t really on the average CFO’s mind. But now, with President-elect Donald Trump pledging to impose wide-reaching tariffs once in office, they’ve become one of the top concerns for finance chiefs heading into the new year.
That’s according to the most recent CFO survey from Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, which polled around 500 CFOs pre- and post-presidential election to get a sense of how their priorities are shifting with the incoming administration. Monetary policy, labor quality and availability, and inflation topped the list of concerns post-election, while tariffs entered the top 10 list for the first time. Before the election, just 3% of finance executives mentioned the topic; post-election, the share more than quadrupled, to 14%.
While the tariff concerns suggest CFOs are becoming uneasy with the macroeconomic environment, that’s not necessarily the case: CFO optimism about the overall U.S. Economy and their own company’s performance increased following the election, with smaller firms more optimistic than larger ones.
But tariffs are the one dark spot in this otherwise rosy outlook: Firms that ranked trade policy as the most pressing concern also reported significantly lower levels of optimism for their own firm’s performance and the overall economy’s. Those CFOs are worried about the possible impact on growth and earnings.
There’s good cause for concern. After winning the election, Trump has said one of his first executive orders would be to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% increase of existing tariffs on goods from China. With companies—and eventually consumers—footing the bill, some executives are already preparing for price hikes and even fewer products to be on shelves. A report from the right-leaning Tax Foundation found the proposed tariffs would reduce GDP by at least 0.4% and eliminate almost 345,000 jobs.
Still, it was a smaller share of executives who expressed concern about a looming trade war—one that might not even happen. Most firms are feeling good, thanks to what they think will be more corporate-friendly tax and regulatory policies to come from the second Trump administration. After Q1 2025, we’ll have a clearer look at how things are actually playing out.
Alicia Adamczyk
[email protected]
The following sections of CFO Daily were curated by Greg McKenna.
Leaderboard
Terry Olson has resigned as CFO of Andalusian Credit Company, a company with private equity, private credit, and sports advisory arms, according to a recent SEC filing. He will be succeeded by Mike Szczurek as the firm’s principal financial officer, the company said. Olson previously served as COO and CFO of First Eagle Alternative Credit, according to his bio on Andalusian’s website, and held the same roles at THL Credit Advisors prior to its acquisition by First Eagle.
Kin Sze was appointed CFO of Metal Sky Star Acquisition Corporation (Nasdaq: MSSA), a blank check company, effective Dec. 20. He will replace Wenxi He, who has resigned from the position but will continue to serve as the company’s CEO. Since July 2024, Sze has been the CEO and chairman of Ocean Capital Acquisition Corporation. From July 2020 to October 2024, he was executive director of Silverbricks Asset Management Company.
Big Deal
Citi has released its full-year Wealth Outlook for 2025, titled “Growth Amid Discord: Strategies for a ‘Rule-Breaking’ Expansion.” Amid heightened geopolitical concerns, Citi expects greater market volatility this coming year, but it still expects the global economic expansion to continue in 2025 and 2026.
The report also focuses on four long-term trends transforming daily life and work. These include increasing AI adoption, innovation in technology aimed at addressing climate change and emissions reductions, healthcare managers serving aging populations, and increasing tensions between the U.S. And China.
We are advising our investors to keep core portfolios fully invested for the long-term while being wary of over-concentrated portfolios,” said Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist and economist for Citi Wealth. “The long period of sharp outperformance for U.S. Large cap equities has reduced future returns while many other assets—including smaller cap U.S. Growth and international markets—offer potential opportunity.”
Going Deeper
“Our Favorite Management Tips of 2024” is a new article from the Harvard Business Review featuring some of the year’s highlights from Management Tip of the Day, one of the publication’s most popular newsletters. They included eight leadership skills to develop, advice on how to create an effective slide deck, and a list of traits needed to build a so-called “executive presence.”
Overheard
“I don’t think I’ve heard a CEO say anything like that before in my lifetime. These are conservative industrial manufacturing, old-school companies that are seeing a lot of business and a lot of upside.”
— Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, said in an interview with Coins2Day about industrial stocks soaring, referencing comments from Quanta Services CEO Duke Austin, who called the energy needs of data centers in the company’s network “mind-blowing.”