With stocks at near record-high valuations and economic uncertainty building, many investors are wondering if now is the time to take some profits and rebalance their portfolio. The question is doubly pressing because while the S&P 500 surged more than 20% last year, just 10 stocks make up more than 35% of the index, signaling the market may be more fragile than it appears.
The answer on rebalancing is, of course, different for every investor, and depends on your goals, risk tolerance, current asset allocation, and so on. But some certified financial planners (CFPs) are saying that it might make sense to consider moving away from mega-cap tech stocks toward other sectors and smaller companies. While no one can predict the future, high valuations often lead to lower long-term returns.
“Industrials, healthcare, energy, and materials look more attractive,” says Kenneth B. Waltzer, a California-based CFP. “It’s also time to look overseas, including Europe, which everyone hates.”
Rebalancing generally means periodically buying or selling assets in your portfolio, typically stocks and bonds, to maintain your preferred level of asset allocation and risk. So it’s important to doublecheck your strategic portfolio allocation, he says. If stocks are overweight—meaning they now comprise a higher-than-desired percentage of your total assets—then consider trimming them back to your initial target.
This is especially important for those who will need money in the short term, say in the next three or so years. In general, retirees and pre-retirees should be moving away from equities and reducing the overall risk in their portfolios.
But more generally, now might be the time to lock in gains on over-concentrated stock positions, says Jon Wingent, a California-based CFP.
“Reducing exposure to the most inflated parts of the market can help mitigate downside risk,” says Wingent. At the same time, he says to avoid “knee-jerk reactions.”
There is some concern that the Trump administration and Congress could make decisions that increase inflation and disappoint Wall Street, says Eric Walters, Colorado-based CFP. The specter of tariffs and maintained inflation are giving investors pause.
With that in mind, Walters’s firm has been rebalancing and taking some profits.
“We’re rebalancing towards investment grade bonds, managed futures, and infrastructure funds that have great track records with lower correlation to the equity market,” he says.
All of that said, not all financial experts are convinced now is the time to make big moves. In fact, Byrke Sestok, a New York-based CFP, says one of the biggest mistakes he sees people make is rebalancing systematically in the face of a bull market.
Indeed, guessing that now is the time to sell could mean watching the market continue to climb from the sidelines.
“Let your stock investments run and worry about rebalancing on the back side of the peak,” says Sestok. “It’s OK to rebalance after a 10% decline if you participated in the 75% run-up.”