For decades, the international order and our relationships with allies have been built on trust—a trust forged through adversity, from conflicts to economic crises. In an era of escalating geopolitical competition, economic fragmentation, and emerging security threats, trust has only become more important. Without trust, cooperation falters, alliances weaken, and global challenges become insurmountable. Strength alone is not enough; trust must be the foundation of a durable and effective foreign policy.
Throughout history, trust has served as the backbone of global stability. The formation of NATO in 1949 exemplifies how trust between allied nations ensured collective security and deterrence against external threats. Similarly, the Marshall Plan, which provided aid to rebuild Europe after World War II, was a significant trust-building initiative that cemented the transatlantic alliance. Conversely, when trust eroded—such as during the Cold War or the breakdown of U.S.-Iran relations—it led to prolonged tensions, avoidable loss, and instability.
During the recent Munich Security Conference, it was evident that many statespersons and CEOs were marred by uncertainty in a moment of distrust. The conference has long been a destination where what’s around the corner appears up close, and this year’s event was no exception. Whether in discussions on the next phase of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Vice President JD Vance’s speech on European expression and immigration, Europe’s posture toward China, or the potential of American tariffs on Europe, Canada, and Mexico, a new order is taking shape. It is up to us to shape it wisely.
Sustaining trust
The current global order is shifting not only as the U.S., a long-standing hegemon, faces a rising geopolitical competitor in China, but also as emerging powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India grow in influence while traditional competitors like Russia face relative decline. This shift is occurring alongside a Europe in crisis, grappling with the ongoing war in Ukraine and the necessity of collective action among its allies.
The Ukraine conflict highlights the importance of trust in modern warfare alliances. The U.S. And NATO partners have provided significant military aid, but sustaining that trust is crucial as political dynamics change. Any perceived wavering in U.S. Support could weaken allied confidence and embolden adversaries. Similarly, trust issues between the U.S. And China are affecting global supply chains, cybersecurity, and diplomatic efforts on Taiwan. A recalibration of trust between global powers will determine the trajectory of the next decade.
Beyond security, trust plays a pivotal role in global economics. Trade agreements, foreign direct investment, and market stability all rely on the predictability and reliability of diplomatic relations. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the European Union’s internal economic cohesion demonstrate how economic partnerships thrive when trust is maintained. Conversely, Brexit showcased the economic turbulence that results from a breakdown in trust between partners.
Trust is critical in both business and diplomacy, but it is paramount when considering long-term geopolitical realities. As the intensity of global competition rises, today’s actions will define tomorrow’s strategy.
Reinforcing alliances
Geopolitics is a game of chess, not checkers, with trust serving as the north star guiding each move.
For the Trump administration, my advice is that holding adversaries close can serve a strategic role, but holding allies even closer is a long-term necessity. Strategic engagement with adversaries is essential to gather intelligence, avoid misunderstandings, and maintain open channels for diplomacy. However, reinforcing alliances must take priority, as these relationships are the key to navigating the coming decade.
While trust with allies may be cultivated privately, the U.S. Must also be more overt about its commitments. Optics matter. If America wants peace through strength, it must also demonstrate strength in numbers. As we approach some of the most complex power struggles of our time, fostering strong alliances that extend beyond election cycles is essential. This does not mean deals should not be renegotiated as economic realities and needs shift, but rather that such negotiations should be conducted with an understanding that every ally plays a strategic role in a broader mission. Projecting unity is vital, as adversaries will seek to exploit any signs of isolation or discord among allies.
Europe’s balancing act
For Europe, the key is approaching negotiations with the U.S. From a position of shared long-term objectives. European leaders should be clear about their priorities and open to compromises that result in mutual gains. Additionally, Europe must strike a balance in shaping modern policies, particularly on issues like artificial intelligence, without alienating allies and global businesses.
As geopolitical divisions deepen, Europe must reinforce its strength through unity. This will be especially crucial as internal political shifts, such as the potential continued rise of the AfD in Germany, threaten to reframe the continent’s relationship with the EU. Additionally, Europe’s response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will determine how effectively it balances economic interests with security concerns.
One underexplored aspect of trust is the role of AI and emerging technologies in diplomacy. AI-driven security measures, blockchain-based diplomatic agreements, and cybersecurity cooperation could help nations verify commitments and prevent diplomatic deception. The U.S. And its allies should explore how technology can enhance transparency in trade agreements, international treaties, and security partnerships.
Chess requires two players, and in an era of uncertainty, risk, and great power competition, both allies and adversaries must be maneuvered carefully. The strategic moves made today will define the world order for decades to come. Trust is not a passive asset; it is an active strategy that must be cultivated, reinforced, and projected to ensure stability and strength in an unpredictable future.
By doubling down on historical lessons, economic interdependence, and technological advancements, global leaders can solidify trust as the foundation for lasting peace and prosperity.
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