- Elon Musk’s goal of establishing human colonies on Mars depends on the company first building out its satellite-internet network, Starlink, ARK Invest researchers explained in a Tuesday note. SpaceX is the biggest holding in the firm’s ARK Venture Fund, making up over 13% of its portfolio.
SpaceX will eventually go “all in” on Elon Musk’s goal of colonizing Mars, according to the firm of famed tech investor Cathie Wood. Before that’s possible, however, ARK Invest believes building out satellite-internet network Starlink will propel SpaceX to a $2.5 trillion valuation by the end of the decade.
That enterprise value, or the sum of SpaceX’s equity and debt, would represent a 38% annualized return from its $350 billion funding round in December. The Tuesday note from ARK Invest’s Daniel Maguire, Sam Korus, and Brett Winton marked a return to the firm’s typically bullish commentary on Musk’s companies. Wood has called the world’s richest man “the inventor of our age,” but she recently said Musk’s public feud with President Donald Trump underlined how much his businesses rely on the U.S. Government.
With Musk seemingly trying to smooth things over, however, Wood and other investors will hope his focus can shift back to space. First on the agenda for SpaceX is completing Starlink’s so-called constellation of satellites.
Currently, there are roughly 7,600 of those satellites in orbit, according to Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell. The satellites have a lifespan of approximately five years; SpaceX hopes to eventually have 42,000 of them in the sky.
ARK Invest’s valuation model, developed with the help of space-investment research firm Mach33, sees that mark being reached around 2035. Wood’s firm believes that would allow SpaceX to generate roughly $300 billion in annual revenue, or 15% of projected communications spending worldwide. For some context: Apple, the most profitable company in the U.S., posted $391 billion in sales last year.
“Funds flow gradually toward the development of Mars, until the Starlink constellation is complete,” the ARK Invest researchers wrote.
Heading to Mars
The ARK Invest authors say Musk’s ultimate goal for SpaceX is to bring humans to Mars, presumably with the help of his business empire. ARK Invest believes Tesla’s humanoid robot, dubbed Optimus, and machinery from Musk’s tunneling firm, the Boring Company, will be crucial in building the necessary infrastructure to establish colonies on the Red Planet.
While conceding that projecting cash flows from extraterrestrial settlements can be speculative, ARK Invest believes Mars-related business will account for a significant portion of SpaceX’s valuation by the late 2030s.
“Given the scale and long-term goal of colonizing Mars, investors are unlikely to earn much of a return on capital for a significant period of time,” the researchers wrote. “While activities on Mars could lower the costs of servicing the satellite market on earth and pave the way for mining asteroids, those opportunities are beyond the scope of this forecast.”
Musk’s grand ambitions will require a lot of funding, of course. SpaceX particularly depends on government contracts. According to federal spending records, the company has received over $20 billion from Uncle Sam over the past 15 years.
That helps explain why Musk offered a rare apology for his recent criticism of Trump after donating nearly $300 million to back the president and other Republican candidates during the 2024 election, as well as leading a cost-cutting crusade with the Department of Government Efficiency.
As Musk puts his experience in Washington behind him, investors in the ARK Venture Fund, which provides exposure to several high-profile private companies, will hope he can reward the optimism of Wood and her colleagues. The fund’s shares have risen nearly 20% over the past 12 months, compared with the 12.5% return of the S&P 500.
SpaceX is the fund’s biggest holding, making up over 13% of the portfolio. Fellow Musk-owned companies Neuralink and xAI are its second- and fourth-largest positions, respectively.