- Currently $7.2 million in bets have been placed on Polymarket, but the probability of Tesla’s robotaxi service meeting the criteria necessary to be judged a success is approaching zero with hours left on the clock. While this doesn’t diminish the company’s accomplishments this past week, it is not a case of splitting hairs—Tesla’s ability to rapidly scale service has yet to be proven.
Tesla’s autonomous ride hailing service went live just over a week ago with nearly a dozen robotaxis shuttling passengers in downtown Austin. Tesla influencers from across the country descended upon the Texan capital to participate in the historic event—assuming they were lucky enough to nab a coveted invite.
In a basic sense, CEO Elon Musk delivered on his timetable, first announced back in January.
Or did he?
If you ask Polymarket, where $7.2 million in bets have been placed over the past four weeks on a June launch, the resounding answer is no.
Anyone that wagered money Tesla would in fact go to market stands to lose their wager. At present, the probability has sunk to just a 2% success rate. Barring a last-second surprise, their bets are scheduled to expire worthless when the clock strikes 11 p.m. Texas local time.
One account, for example, purchased 420,000 shares at an average of around 12 cents—each cent is equivalent to one percentage point of probability. Were that individual to liquidate now prior to expiry, they stand to lose 86% of their wager.
Missing puzzle piece
The missing puzzle piece that could change that all in an instant were if Musk opened the service up to all Austin residents. Under the terms of the bet, that is the threshold that must be met in order for the rollout to qualify.
At present, only those explicitly invited, many of whom are a select group of superfans with large followings in the Tesla community, may hail one of his robotaxis. Right now there’s not a lot of optimism things will change over the coming four weeks, either, with the odds for a July launch at less than one in three.
While the market is celebrating $TSLA launching a robotaxi today, the betting market just sent the odds of that happening plummeting lower. Pic.twitter.com/XDfdQj2N0g
— Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) June 23, 2025
What about Friday’s impressive demonstration of a Tesla car driving itself from the factory outside Austin to a waiting owner roughly a half-hour away? That was Tesla’s second milestone in less than a week, an early birthday present for Musk before turning 54 this weekend.
That too doesn’t qualify.
“A program that is restricted to Tesla employees, invite-only testers, closed-beta participants, factory self-delivery features, or the mere release of Full Self-Driving software for private owner-drivers will not qualify,” the site states in its terms.
This is the simplicity of Polymarket. Unlike equity investments where a stock can still price in future cash flows without the corresponding target actually being achieved on deadline, there is no moving the goalpost with prediction markets.
Once the terms are announced, either the agreed upon criteria are met or they are not—the outcome is always binary.
More than just semantics—Tesla’s ability to scale is core to its robotaxi promise
While a missed wager doesn’t diminish the accomplishments these past few days of Tesla—which did not respond to a request for comment—the issue is more than just semantic.
Musk’s core promise to differentiate Tesla from competitors like Google’s Waymo is an ability to scale exponentially overnight once the AI-enabled technology proves itself safe.
That’s because the entrepreneur has been telling his investors for nearly nine years that every car leaving its factory since October 2016 comes equipped with the necessary hardware pre-installed to drive autonomously.
While Waymo has to first acquire cars like the Jaguar I-Pace EV and then fit them with costly sensors and computing power, there’s no need for that when it comes to Tesla, according to Musk. The vehicles have already been built and delivered to customer hands. They are simply waiting to be awakened.
“Suddenly 3 million cars will be able to drive themselves,” he predicted two years ago.
All he needs to do is flip a switch and push the over-the-air firmware update out to the entire fleet. He’s called it Tesla’s “ChatGPT moment”.
Instead the CEO still is keeping a tight leash on which customers can use his limited robotaxi fleet. For now, that’s one big promise Musk still needs to deliver.