Ebay turns 30 this September and the company is showing some signs that it’s starting to turn back the clock.
The auction giant’s stock surged more than 19% on Thursday to an all-time high of $92 a share on the back of revenue growth and earnings that both surpassed analyst expectations, and an outlook that was far less gloomy than it could have been.
That’s the top-line good news.
The reality check, though, is that Ebay still accounts for less than 4% of the overall e-commerce market in the U.S., compared to around 40% for Amazon, 6% for Walmart, and pressure from a collection of discount or product-specific apps and marketplaces from Temu to Whatnot, a live-streaming commerce startup valued at $5 billion.
So what gives? Where is the eBay optimism coming from and is this current moment an aberration and blip or, as the internet analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a research note on Thursday, “something of an inflection point”?
As Mahaney wrote, eBay’s gross volume and revenue growth rates, excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate changes, both rose 4% year-over-year in the past quarter. Those numbers sound meager because they are, but it’s the fastest that the commerce marketplace has grown in two years—which is…something.
The one-time e-commerce darling has been trying to lean into its historic strengths or “focus areas”—product categories where it can win—and that seems to be paying off. Those categories grew 10% in the quarter compared to about 1% for everything else.
“Collectibles was once again the largest contributor to growth as year-over-year growth in trading cards GMV accelerated for the 10th straight quarter on the back of continued momentum in both collectible card games and sports trading cards,” CEO Jamie Iannone told analysts on the earnings call.
Collectible categories have been booming across the board since the onset of the pandemic, as nostalgia coupled with new shopping experiences and sales tactics drive renewed interest in trading cards like Pokemon as well as sports cards. Startups like Whatnot, Fanatics, and Courtyard, which is selling $50 million in cards and comics a month, are playing a role. But eBay is still the biggest online player in the space and also capitalizing on the consumer interest.
To that end, the company is pushing aggressively into live-streaming commerce, with eBay Live, where Fanatics and Whatnot are finding success, and the early signs are encouraging, according to Iannone.
“We have already seen significant evidence that live commerce can deepen engagement among eBay enthusiasts and unlock even greater velocity in our strongest verticals, which validates our continued investment in this experience,” he told analysts.
(For what it’s worth, top live-streaming card seller Rene Nezhoda, of Storage Wars fame, had this to say about eBay Live when I interviewed him about his business on Whatnot, where he sells $15 million to $18 million a year in sports cards. “I wouldn’t be surprised if eBay Live might become the market leader because they just have such a big user database,” he told Coins2Day in June.)
Ebay’s Iannone said his company is also seeing both top-line and bottom-line benefits from integrating the Klarna Buy Now Pay Later payment method into the shopping site, by expanding its on-site advertising business, and by integrating generative and agentic AI experiences into the shopping marketplace for both buyers or sellers, though it’s too early to tell how much the latter will boost the business long term.
No, eBay isn’t immune to the U.S.-China tariff war, though it shouldn’t be crippled by it. No, it’s not a threat to giants like Amazon and Walmart that specialize in everyday, new goods. But riding hot, historically strong product categories, while keeping up with new industry tablestakes like Gen AI integrations for sellers and buyers, and popular payment types like Klarna, has the 30-year-old company’s future looking brighter than it has in a long while. And that’s not nothing.
