For Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, the political implications of still-elevated inflation are not lost on him.
Inflation has come down a lot from 9% in 2022 to 2.9% in the government’s latest CPI report. Core PCE prices, the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, rose 2.9% in August, matching July’s climb.
But inflation has been sticky as tariffs take hold, and Griffin predicted inflation will continue to be in the mid-2% to 3% range next year, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
“The American voters have been exhausted of inflation,” he told CNBC on Thursday.
In 2024, the high cost of living was a focal point in Trump’s reelection campaign, and Biden-era inflation hurt Democrats. They lost the White House and Congress, while Trump won all seven swing states.
Many voters blamed Democratic policies—including stimulus spending—for sustained, high costs, exit polls found.
“There’s no doubt that the president and the Republicans came to power on the back of frustration with inflation,” Griffin said. “I would not underestimate how grating a 3% inflation rate could be to tens of millions of American households.”
Inflation could feature heavily in midterm elections next year, as the Republican Party looks to defend narrow majorities in the House and Senate. And voters are souring on Trump’s economy.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 28% of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of their cost of living. A YouGov/Economist poll put Trump’s approval rating on the economy at an all-time low of 35%.
One indicator of affordability has been a thorn in Trump’s side: high mortgage rates. Yet as Trump looks to the Fed for homeowner relief, many worry about political influence over the independent body.
Trump has been criticized lately for pressuring the Federal Reserve and threatening its independence. Critics argue that his efforts to appoint loyalists to the Fed, public calls to lower interest rates, and attempts to remove a sitting governor represent a clear move to sway monetary policy for political purposes.
Griffin advised that continued Fed independence would be in Trump’s interest.
“If I were the president, I would let the Fed do their job,” he said. “I would let the Fed have as much perceived and real independence as possible, because the Fed often has to make choices that are pretty painful to make.”
The Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by a fourth of a percent earlier this month to buoy a slowing labor market. The move comes after months of continued pressure from the Trump administration on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other committee members to cut rates.
Still, President Donald Trump has been vocal about cutting rates further, even though the move likely will risk further price increases.
Griffin warned that erosion of Fed independence could lead to Americans conflating the White House and central bank.
“If the president’s perceived as being in control of the Fed, then what happens when those painful choices have to be made?”