- S&P 500 futures and the dollar dropped in the middle of the night, while safe-haven assets surged. Analysts warn a prolonged government shutdown and layoffs could hurt GDP and spur earlier Fed rate cuts, but markets historically fluctuate only modestly during shutdowns.
S&P 500 futures moved sharply down at about 2 a.m. ET this morning after the U.S. federal government went into another shutdown. The key difference for markets this time around—there have been about 20 shutdowns since 1976—is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t be publishing the upcoming jobless claims report or the Consumer Price Index (inflation). This means investors will be in the dark for a while, and explains why S&P futures are down 0.55% prior to the opening bell in New York while markets in Asia and Europe are strongly up this morning. The U.S. dollar sank this morning but quickly regained most of its losses. It remains down by just under 10% for the year on the DXY currency index.
Unsurprisingly, safe haven assets also saw a pop. The price of gold—via the Comex continuous contract—spiked 1.1% this morning to $3,913.70 per ounce. And Bitcoin rose sharply by more than 2% this morning to $116.4K.
“A big impact for this week is that we’re flying blind on the economic data front. So as it stands, we won’t get a jobs report on Friday, as the BLS aren’t releasing new data. Contrary to our prior expectations the Labor Department yesterday said we won’t see U.S. jobless claims in the shutdown either,” Jim Reid and the team at Deutsche Bank warned clients this morning. “We thought we might see it released as the States compile the data. The BLS produce the CPI report on October 15th too, so if we’re shut down for long, that could be affected as well.”
The lack of jobs data was a particular concern for ING’s Chris Turner: “Remember that as many as 150k government staff lay-offs may hit the October non-farm payroll result as part of DOGE’s austerity drive earlier this year. The shutdown also means we are unlikely to see weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the September payroll report on Friday.”
The big question going forward is, how long will the shutdown last?
A short closure will probably look like a blip for U.S. equities but a prolonged coma, coupled with the mass layoffs President Trump is threatening, could cause material damage, according to Oxford Economics analyst Ryan Sweet. “Our estimate is that a partial government shutdown reduces GDP growth by 0.1ppt-0.2ppts per week. For context, a shutdown that lasts the entire quarter, which has never occurred, would reduce Q4 real GDP growth by 1.2ppts-2.4ppts,” he said in a note this morning.
That might tip the Fed’s hand to cut interest rates further, he said.
“One forecast change that could occur is bringing forward the rate cut from December. The Federal Reserve emphasized the September move as an insurance cut. A shutdown would likely leave the central bank in a fog about the labor market, fueling support for an October cut rather than risk falling behind and having to cut more later.”
Today, however, the mood among analysts is calm. Shutdowns add a bit of volatility to the markets but they don’t generally derail them. “History reveals no clear relationship between shutdowns and market returns. Markets might experience heightened volatility in response to the uncertainty in Washington. However, markets have historically had mixed reactions to government shutdowns, with equities finishing in positive territory more than half the time,” a note from Vanguard said this morning.
Here’s snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
- S&P 500 futures were down 0.55% this morning. The index closed up 0.41% in its last session.
- STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.65% in early trading.
- The U.K.’s FTSE 100 up 0.68% in early trading.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.85%.
- China’s CSI 300 was up 0.45%.
- The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.91%.
- India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.76% before the end of the session.
- Bitcoin rose to $115.8K.