The AI bubble will pop. Intelligence won't

David Stout is founder and CEO of webAI.

David Stout
David Stout, CEO of webAI.
courtesy of webAI

Investors should be concerned about Oracle's 43% stock surge within a 24-hour period. This isn't a meme stock or a speculative startup; it's one of America's largest tech companies, now inexplicably valued as if it were the dot-com bubble all over again. The surge in artificial intelligence has propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to unprecedented peaks. This surge is the most recent event prompting investors to question: Is the AI bubble about to burst?

Yes, it will.

Intelligence, however, will not diminish. As Wall Street lavishes investment on massive AI models with exorbitant costs, AI is already delivering tangible benefits in more transformative, though less Fashionable, methods. 

In Austin, Texas, an on-site AI system significantly sped up the processing of building permits, reducing the time from months to mere days. This efficient solution was implemented without fanfare. Just efficiencies that will endure beyond market fluctuations.

This is the crucial aspect frequently overlooked amidst the commotion. Massive, ambitious models garner significant attention, require immense financial investment, and face challenges in proving their long-term financial viability. Smaller, specialized systems are already proving to be beneficial, offering greater efficiency, reduced expenses, and enhanced productivity. The wisest approach is not to forsake AI, but to shift focus to models and implementations that possess longevity.

This scenario is familiar. Netscape once stood as a symbol of the internet's transformative power. Its remarkably successful IPO garnered significant attention, and its subsequent downfall became a notable part of history. The downfall of once-popular internet companies didn't end the internet; instead, it demonstrated that the internet's true worth resided in its underlying infrastructure rather than in its web browsers. Underneath.

AI is at a similar juncture now. While familiar AI tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude are impressive technological achievements, they are not indicative of sustainable artificial intelligence. Though breathtakingly simple to operate, they come at no cost or a minimal expense. Their primary benefit lies in providing entertainment and ease of use rather than significant business advantage. While ChatGPT can be a delightful tool for composing poetry and can prove helpful in refining an email, its contributions are not essential.

The hyperscale model is not economically viable. As training and maintaining ever-expanding systems becomes progressively less effective and exponentially more expensive, reaching into the billions, it explains why GPT-5 was released with a shrug. Mere size doesn't impress like it used to.

So what is?

The solution rests with concentrated efforts. Austin's permit office accomplished in weeks what bureaucratic processes had stalled for years. Healthcare systems are running employ diagnostic models specifically adapted to their fields, achieving superior results compared to broadly designed LLMs. Financial institutions are already utilizing BloombergGPT, which has been trained on market data, providing superior performance within its specific area compared to more general consumer-focused models. These applications produce measurable returns on investment and do so in a lasting way.

The idea is straightforward: a large, versatile model can handle numerous tasks adequately, though it seldom achieves exceptional performance. A streamlined system, designed for a particular purpose and implemented with care, can offer enhanced speed and precision in critical areas while costing significantly less. The expense. This is the smart, economical path: embed AI strategically to achieve immediate business goals, rather than pursuing an elusive ideal. For a singular, state-of-the-art AI innovation.

Imagine assembling a project team: a hundred standard consultants will not achieve the same results as five highly skilled experts.

The location of your data is equally important. Optimized lighter models can operate directly on edge devices or within secure enterprise premises, eliminating reliance on expensive, centralized infrastructure. At webAI, for instance, we've achieved a model size reduction of almost thirty percent without compromising its accuracy. This alters the financial situation entirely. Instead of sending every request to a costly cloud hub, intelligence is placed nearer the data it manages, resulting in lower costs and increased speed, Stronger and safer. Crucially, businesses maintain control over their information and the understanding derived from it, a benefit absent when solely depending on hyperscale providers. Suppliers.

Businesses solely reliant on massive models face escalating expenses, environmental concerns, and security risks. Specialized AI that is decentralized bypasses those pitfalls. Additionally, it provides resilience and strengthens businesses against the inevitable regulatory scrutiny.

Considering this, discerning techno-optimists and AI investors should remain calm when alarming headlines predict an "AI winter." It's true that some businesses will fail AI's economic unsustainability is causing significant challenges, mirroring the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. However, AI technology itself is enduring. It's transforming into interconnected, specialized systems operating cooperatively, resembling a city's infrastructure more than a single towering building.

Executives should understand this key point: do not prioritize expansion solely for the sake of growth. Opt for AI systems that are efficient, situated near your data, and customized for particular business requirements. Focus on enduring value, not fleeting shows.

As the next AI earnings season stirs up market volatility, keep Austin't s building permits in mind. Companies developing focused, specialized AI will experience less concern regarding their valuations. The advancement of AI is irreversible. The future won't prioritize growth above all else; instead, it will be characterized by intelligence, efficiency, and sustainability.

Commentary articles on Fortune.com present the exclusive perspectives of their authors, not necessarily mirroring the company's viewpoints or convictions. Regarding Fortune.

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