- Analysts, relying on private data due to the government shutdown, observe a declining job market. Moody's Mark Zandi reported that September experienced "virtually no job growth," with increases confined to the healthcare and education sectors, along with a few major states, according to ADP Payrolls showed declines, and Glassdoor observed a deceleration in salary increases. Without Bureau of Labor Statistics data, economists caution the Federal Reserve is forced to make policy choices with limited insight, increasing the danger That the reality is bleaker than investors currently believe.
With official economic indicators unavailable due to the government shutdown, observers are now scrutinizing private datasets for insights. Moody's suggests that the current situation is not promising.
Markets are showing strong upward momentum even though crucial employment figures were absent at the end of last week. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) frequently offers significant clues about the economy's future direction, yet investors are currently observing Positive outlook as long as no negative developments occur.
However, Moody's cautions that private reports depict a less optimistic scenario, characterizing the growth in job roles as "meager." From every stakeholder From Wall Street to the Federal Reserve, there's a consensus that America's job market is slowing down. The August jobs report, for instance, indicated a mere 22,000 new positions were created, according to BLS's latest release, but this slowdown is Uncertain to what degree.
Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, stated in a weekend note that information gathered by Revelio Labs, a company that collects data from professional networking Sources such as LinkedIn estimate job growth, indicating that approximately 60,000 new positions were created in September. He further stated that this was "almost entirely concentrated within the education and healthcare sectors."
He noted that these roles aren't confined to specific sectors but rather to regions. "It's also worth mentioning that job growth last month was almost entirely in The states of California, New York, and Massachusetts are among the top five nationally for GDP per capita.
Zandi also cited figures from payroll giant ADP, indicating a loss of 32,000 private sector positions in the previous month. While Zandi believes Revelio inflates positive economic indicators, he argues ADP downplays negative ones, noting that government jobs likely declined as well during the period. The continuing DOGE-related layoffs. ADP's figures are derived from the payroll data it handles for numerous businesses.
He further stated: "Most of the employment increases reported by ADP were also in the healthcare sector, and only companies exceeding 500 workers saw an addition to their workforce." Payrolls. Tariffs and stringent immigration rules are disproportionately affecting smaller businesses.
The economist stated that when combining the Revelio and ADP estimates for September, it indicates virtually no increase in employment during that month. This aligns with recent reports from The Conference Board, which indicate that job seekers are facing growing challenges in securing employment. This data indicated that confidence has not been this low since the pandemic's conclusion, and further suggested that "there's no better predictor of changes in unemployment," Which consequently probably rebounded in September."
Glassdoor's job site data presents a comparably varied scenario. Chief economist Daniel Zhao shared on Friday noted that despite a slight increase in confidence last month, it remains lower than the previous year. Compensation also saw a minor decrease in September, with average salaries on Glassdoor falling by 0.4% from August's $72,128 to $71,831 annually. Compared to last year, salaries saw a 4.9% increase in September, marking a slowdown from the 5.4% growth recorded in August. This represents the slowest year-over-year salary expansion since April. The year 2025.
Zandi stated: "The essential point is that the absence of BLS jobs data poses a significant challenge to evaluating the economy's well-being and informing sound decisions. Policy choices. However, private entities are commendably bridging the data void concerning employment, at least temporarily. And this information suggests the job market is struggling and its condition is deteriorating.
Fed through a keyhole
With Washington't s deadlock showing no signs of abating, most economists now anticipate the government shutdown will extend beyond the middle Of October—the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering to determine the benchmark interest rate.
UBS's Paul Donovan had previously cautioned that "private data is akin to viewing the [data unavailable during the blackout] without government agencies sharing it. Viewing the economy is like looking through a keyhole: it offers a clear but limited perspective. Official data, however, opens the door to a much broader understanding. Official data is essential for private data to model economic aspects it cannot directly observe, and this modeling's precision diminishes in the Lack of official statistics.
Pantheon Macroeconomics' senior U.S. Analyst, likewise, Last week, economist Oliver Allen cautioned clients in a memo that in the absence of other data, figures from sources such as ADP will carry greater significance. Official data from the BLS might appear more bleak than anticipated. Allen indicated that the upcoming September private payroll growth figures from the BLS are expected to be artificially inflated by a substantial increase in Occupations in the leisure and hospitality sector, possibly due to inaccurate seasonal adjustments. Our outlook continues to predict a 75,000 increase in private sector jobs, though we anticipate a headline payroll rise of only 50,000, a figure influenced partly by an ongoing A decline in federal government jobs.