President Donald Trump is scheduled to depart for Asia by week's end, anticipating that a global trip will assist him in resolving significant matters he cannot afford to misjudge.
TL;DR
- President Donald Trump embarks on an Asia trip to address global economic matters and trade tensions.
- A key focus is an anticipated meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with outcomes ranging from deal to disaster.
- Trump's visit includes Malaysia for a regional summit, Japan for foreign investment, and South Korea for trade talks.
- Uncertainty surrounds Trump's Asia strategy, with concerns about potential global economic destabilization.
At stake is nothing less than the future of the global economy, which could hinge on whether he’s able to calm trade tensions during an expected meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. A misstep could send shock waves through American industries that have already been rattled by Trump’s aggressive tariffs, government layoffs and political brinkmanship.
Since his return to office in January, Trump's improvised approach has yielded mixed results. While Hamas has released hostages to Israel, the situation the ceasefire in the Middle East is still precarious; a trade dispute with China has ebbed and flowed is expected this year; and Russia's incursion into Ukraine has not abated despite Trump’s efforts efforts to find a resolution.
The White House has kept much of Trump's travel plans under wraps, leading to some speculation. On Monday, the president stated his intention to visit Malaysia for a regional summit, followed by a trip to Japan to secure foreign investment.
He's scheduled to visit South Korea as well, focusing on further trade matters and anticipating a meeting with Xi. Beijing hasn't yet confirmed this encounter, and both leaders have recently engaged in threats involving tariffs and export limitations.
“I have a very good relationship with President Xi of China,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday. He offered to lower tariffs but “they have to give us some things too,” including buying U.S. Soybeans, reducing the flow of fentanyl ingredients and ending limits on rare earth minerals that are critical for high-tech manufacturing.
On Monday, Trump conveyed heightened confidence, stating, “I think we’re going to end up having a fantastic deal with China” and “it’s going to be fantastic for the entire world.”
This will be Trump’s first trip to Asia in his second term
As Trump's departure nears, there's a notable degree of uncertainty, which is not uncommon for a president who enjoys keeping others in suspense regarding his future actions.
“The whole trip has seemed so uncertain from the beginning,” said Bonnie Glaser, a managing director at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank.
This marks Trump's initial journey to Asia since resuming his presidential duties. While he has welcomed regional leaders to the White House, he hasn't yet established the deep-rooted connections that characterize his relationships on other continents.
Anna Kelly, representing the president, addressed a series of inquiries regarding Trump’s intentions by stating he “will participate in meetings and events in Asia that will result in many great deals for our country.” She further commented, “Stay tuned!”
President Trump's strategy for Asia has centered on imposing tariffs to correct what he views as inequitable trade policies, causing concern among nations reliant on the U.S. As the primary global export market. Additionally, apprehension exists regarding Trump's upcoming meeting with Xi, and the possibility that a conflict between them might destabilize the global economy.
“There will be some appreciation for the fact that he’s there, but I don’t think it will go far enough to quell the doubts that are pervasive in the region,” Glaser predicted.
Since his initial term, the Republican president has reduced the size of his foreign policy staff, opting for a select circle of trusted individuals over the usual National Security Council advisors.
Rush Doshi, who served in China policy during President Joe Biden's administration, stated, "“There’s not very many White House staff to do this kind of work,”". “All of this puts us in uncharted waters.”
Michael Green, formerly of President George W. Bush’s National Security Council and now heading the United States Studies Centre in Sydney, Australia, stated that Trump hasn't presented a discernible Asia strategy.
“Everyone is waiting to see where he’s going to come down on all of this,” he said.
Some argue that Trump's strategy is proving successful. According to Anthony Kim, a research fellow focusing on international economic affairs at the Heritage Foundation, Japan and South Korea are keen to collaborate with the administration to strengthen alliances.
Kim stated that their message had been “let’s sit down, talk about relevant details to make a deal,”.
Trump’s plans remain in flux as the trip approaches
Malaysia is the host nation for The Association of Southeast Asian Nations' annual summit, an event that Trump participated in just once during his initial presidency, notably absent when it was held virtually throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.
This year's summit provides a chance to showcase Trump's initiatives for peace, a cornerstone of his foreign policy strategy.
During the summer, Thailand and Cambodia skirmished along their disputed border engaged in conflict, prompting Trump to threaten the cessation of trade agreements with both nations should their hostilities persist.
“They were willing to come together and talk to avoid more economic pain,” said Ja Ian Chong, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.
Malaysia and the U.S. Have been working toward securing an expanded ceasefire. The Malaysian foreign minister said Trump “looks forward” to the signing of an agreement at the summit.
Japan is Trump's subsequent destination. A trade accord was finalized between Washington and Tokyo this year, which stipulated $550 billion in investments for U.S. Initiatives.
Japan is experiencing a political shift, as Sanae Takaichi was chosen on Tuesday to become the nation's inaugural female prime minister.
Takaichi is a protégé of Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister who was assassinated after leaving office. Trump was close with Abe during his first term, and Green said Takaichi “has the potential to also play that role.”
Working with Trump and keeping him committed to U.S. Alliances “requires a level of interaction and trust that none of the Asian leaders have,” Green said.
South Korea is Trump’s final stop on his trip
South Korea, the host of this year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, is expected to be the peak of the president's trip. Trump has indicated he will meet with Xi during his time there.
Recent weeks have seen heightened tensions, notably due to China's declaration of limitations on rare earth mineral exports. Trump responded with threats of retaliatory tariffs so substantial he acknowledged they'd be unworkable.
Doshi, the former Biden adviser, said there are three potential outcomes from Trump’s meeting with Xi — “deal, no deal or disaster.” He said China is emboldened after Trump backed down on an earlier tariff announcement when Beijing restricted the export of rare earth magnets.
“The Chinese feel they have President Trump’s number,” Doshi said. “They feel that if they push on this, he’ll fold.”
On Monday, Trump stated that China has “treated us with great respect” since he took office. He mentioned “I could threaten them with many other things,”, but “I want to be good to China.”.
A further unresolved issue involves Trump's trade discussions with South Korea, which is confronting U.S. Tariffs that might harm its automotive sector. Nevertheless, Seoul has resisted Trump's request for a $350 billion investment fund, mirroring the arrangement with Japan.
Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. Trade negotiator with over twenty years of experience and currently the senior vice president at the Asia Society, stated, “There’s some momentum to the talks,”. “But I don’t want to overstate it, because there are some fundamental differences about this fund that need to be sorted out.”
She noted that negotiations often extend until the last moment, but this particular instance “there are so many balls in the air.”
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Associated Press writer Josh Boak contributed to this report.