The remarkable success of Ozempic and Wegovy was always destined to extend beyond their creator, Novo Nordisk, for a limited period. Although the Danish pharmaceutical powerhouse currently possesses the patents for these GLP-1 drugs, some are scheduled to expire as soon as the following year.
TL;DR
- Novo Nordisk's CFO details strategy to prevent stock downgrades and legal challenges.
- Innovation is Novo Nordisk's "ultimate defense" against competitors and patent expirations.
- Novo Nordisk faces patent expirations, competition from Eli Lilly, and legal entanglements.
- The company is focused on new drug development, including CagriSema and amycretin.
Competitors have naturally taken notice of the success of these medications, which are prescribed for diabetes and obesity. For instance, America's Eli Lilly is experiencing increased demand for Its Mounjaro drug and anticipates the medication will be rapidly approved by U.S. Regulators, keen for a pill form.
Novo Nordisk has a pill form of its own products to come, but the fact remains that until it can conjure its next rabbit from the hat, the outlook is weakening. In its Q3 2025 results released Nov. 5, Novo reported expected sales growth for the year of between 8% and 11% at constant exchange rates, and operating profit growth now between 4% and 7%. Compared with the same time last year, Novo was predicting 22% operating profit growth and sales growth of 24%.
Novo Nordisk shares dropped on the update before quickly rebounding, but its stock remains on a downward trajectory. Its share price has fallen more than 50% year to date.
After a companywide restructuring costing some DKK 9 billion ($1.38 billion), Novo’s path to success lies in its ability to create the next health-care-altering drug. This, says Novo CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen, will be the “silver bullet” to defending key markets from competitors.
“The ultimate defense in our industry is in innovation,” Knudsen told Coins2Day in an exclusive interview. “So clearly we do everything we can to push innovation forward: That could be the Wegovy pill that we hope to launch next year in the U.S.; that could be our third-generation product CagriSema that we hope to submit in the coming months; and then push … forward also amycretin. So innovation is really the silver bullet here.”
CagriSema is an obesity medication to be taken once weekly, and amycretin is a daily oral medication used to fight diabetes.
The expiration of patents for some of Novo Nordisk's key products in specific territories is an unavoidable challenge, as companies have a limited time before rivals can introduce their own offerings. Knudsen stated that securing a patent is the reward for innovation, and following a period of exclusivity, businesses must then compete for customers. “This is how it is for our industry. The way we deal with it vis-à-vis our shareholders, first and foremost, is that we’ve been very transparent with the impact from countries where our patent … lapses into next year.”
Knudsen further stated that the company anticipates a minor negative effect in the low single digits due to expirations occurring next year. “In those specific markets then, we adapt our strategies, and we do not intend to leave these markets whatsoever, and intend to defend our market position.”
The primary challenge will emerge in the coming decade: The United States accounts for half of Novo Nordisk's group sales, and although there's a “good runway” extending into the early 2030s, that's when U.S. Patents expire, marking the start of the real competition.
Legal issues
The pharmaceutical sector also brings about legal entanglements, and Novo Nordisk faces numerous challenges. These encompass an antitrust suit filed by a significant rival; allegations concerning medications produced by Novo leading to significant medical side effects; and the pharmaceutical behemoth itself launching suits over copies of its product.
Recently, a New York-based Pfizer launched a case against Novo Nordisk opposed the Danish company's attempt to acquire the obesity venture Metsera. Both Metsera and Novo have responded, with Novo stating in a release: “We are confident this transaction does not raise any antitrust issues.”
Knudsen stated that he doesn't anticipate consumers abandoning Novo Nordisk's offerings despite allegations of severe adverse reactions linked to their use. “This class of products has been around, just in our portfolio, for more than 15 years, and we are reaching millions of patients with our products,” he remarked. “Clearly that would not be the case if there are any material concerns around safety around our products.”
However, the legal actions might turn out to be expensive and protracted, possibly affecting the company's profitability significantly.
“First and foremost, I do believe that we have a highly capable global legal function, and the best way to deal with legal situations is to prevent them from occurring in the first place,” Knudsen said. “The best defense is prevention, and from there it’s really about the legal capabilities both with our in-house function and with our external legal advisors that we use.”
Financially, he added, risks are evaluated on a rolling basis: “We have a reasonable risk profile on that front. It’s something that … we assess on an ongoing basis … and then what insurance coverage do we have, how strong is our legal position, and I think we’re in a reasonable position.”