With the holiday season approaching, American consumers might experience increased expenses, not due to retailer pricing, but because of tariffs. A recent LendingTree analysis indicates that existing tariffs represent a $29 billion tax on the 2025 holiday shopping period, impacting households and individuals as they purchase gifts for friends and family.
TL;DR
- Trump's tariffs represent a $29 billion tax on American consumers' holiday purchases in 2025.
- Shoppers faced an additional cost of approximately $132 per person in 2024 due to tariffs.
- Electronics and apparel bear the heaviest tariff burden, accounting for over 60% of increased expenses.
- Retailers shoulder about 29.5% of tariff costs, but consumers largely absorb the remaining expenses.
A LendingTree analysis indicates that with existing tariffs, the total expense for holiday gift purchases in 2024 would have climbed by $40.6 billion. Significantly, $28.6 billion, representing more than 70% of this rise, would have been directly borne by shoppers. This means each holiday shopper across the U.S. Would have faced an additional cost of approximately $132.
Matt Schulz, who serves as LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst, highlighted that any factor raising the expense of holiday purchases leads to “real challenges for consumers.” He further stated that for the majority of Americans, “spending an extra $132 at the holidays is significant.”
He suggested it might not be “earth-shattering for some,”, but he anticipated it could lead individuals to reduce their holiday spending or incur additional debt, referring to it as “a choice no one wants to have to make.”.
The heaviest load falls on electronics and apparel.
According to the report, the impact of gifts varies. Electronics and apparel/accessories are significantly affected, making up over 60% of the increased consumer expenses. Shoppers faced an average additional tariff cost of $186 for electronics and $82 for clothing or accessories.
Global supply chains and tariff policies significantly influence Americans' holiday shopping, given that 88% of clothing and 69% of electronics are imported. During the 2024 winter holiday shopping period, consumers reportedly spent approximately $377.7 billion on imported items for gifts.
Retailers also face this strain, with the analysis estimating they would shoulder approximately 29.5% of the overall tariff cost in 2024, amounting to roughly $12 billion. Although retailers endure some of the impact, specialists indicate that consumers largely bear the brunt of these expenses, especially when businesses transfer costs to maintain profitability.
LendingTree disclosed its estimates were based on data from Adobe, the National Retail Federation (NRF), the Department of Commerce, the Census Bureau, The Budget Lab at Yale and its own data. The researchers then applied an estimated 17.8% effective tariff rate and assumed a 70.5% pass-through rate from retailers to consumers, based on the midpoint of the range from the Budget Lab’s study. Researchers also adjusted the 2024 U.S. Adult population for the 81% who reported buying holiday gifts to LendingTree and, to calculate the burden per shopper, applied the NRF’s category-level shopping percentages and divided each category’s consumer tariff burden by its number of shoppers.
Even with the substantial expenses detailed by LendingTree, people in the U.S. Probably won't stop giving electronics and apparel as typical holiday presents. Schulz conceded that while costs are rising, the desire for these items stays high, and households might just have to “suck up the higher costs or give fewer of those items as gifts.”