Americans have recently been experiencing sticker shock at grocery stores due to beef prices, and Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe predicts they're set to climb to even more stomach-churning levels next year.
During an interview Friday on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria, he noted that the American cattle population is at its lowest in seven decades, even as demand for beef reaches unprecedented levels.
Ranchers need to retain heifers for herd rebuilding instead of selling them to meat processors. While there are indications this is occurring, Rempe cautioned that it will lead to a reduced beef supply in the immediate future.
“So we are headed for what I’m calling the $10-a-pound reality by third quarter of ’26,” he predicted. “Families are going to see $10-a-pound ground beef in the grocery store.”
The most recent consumer price index data indicates that ground beef averaged $6.323 per pound during September. This represents a 14% increase from January and a 26% rise compared to January of last year.
If ground beef hits $10 a pound, the price would represent a 58% surge from September’s level.
This month's off-year elections saw Republicans suffer significant defeats, largely fueled by public frustration over declining affordability.
On Friday, Trump announced that he’s scrapping tariffs on beef, coffee, and a range of other commodities. But non-tariff factors are driving beef’s price spike.
The U.S. Cattle population has significantly decreased due to a confluence of factors including droughts, elevated interest rates, and costly feed. Concurrently, protein consumption is experiencing a substantial surge, a trend that's even observable in Starbucks lattes.
Last month, Wesley Batista, who co-controls the $15 billion meat-packing giant JBS, stated the U.S. Needs to import more product from abroad to satisfy its immense needs.
This also covers supply originating from Brazil and Argentina. Although Trump reduced tariffs on Argentine beef, Rempe noted that the country represents only 2% of the U.S. Beef supply, indicating that domestic producers will be key to resolving higher prices.
However, Trump has also targeted meat producers, alleging they were “driving up the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation.”
“I am asking the DOJ to act expeditiously,” Trump posted last week on social media. “Action must be taken immediately to protect Consumers, combat Illegal Monopolies, and ensure these Corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American People.”
Rempe committed to keeping prices stable for Omaha Steaks' main gift selections, explaining the firm can utilize existing inventory, its integrated operations, and advanced technologies such as AI, automation, and robotics.
He also advised shoppers to purchase ground beef with an 80% meat to 20% fat ratio, noting it offers a superior cost per ounce when considering yield.
However, if consumers encounter ground beef at the store with price labels indicating $10.00 per pound, it will surpass a significant psychological barrier.
“It’s going to be tough on families,” Rempe said. “I mean that’s going to be quite a shock when that price point hits the four digits. It really feels like it has increased dramatically.”