Pessimism about the country’s future has risen in cities since last year, but rural America is more optimistic about what’s ahead for the U.S., according to a new survey from the American Communities Project.
TL;DR
- Rural America shows increased optimism about the U.S. future, contrasting with urban pessimism.
- Big-city residents are less concerned about crime and gun violence than in previous years.
- Economic anxiety over daily household costs is a widespread concern across all community types.
- Optimism has declined in areas with large Hispanic communities, with residents expressing fear and hopelessness.
And despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that crime is out of control in big cities, residents of the nation’s largest metropolitan centers are less likely to list crime and gun violence among the chief concerns facing their communities than they were a couple years ago.
Optimism about the future is also down from last year in areas with large Hispanic communities.
These are some of the snapshots from the new ACP/Ipsos survey, which offers a nuanced look at local concerns by breaking the nation’s counties into community types, using data points like race, income, age and religious affiliation. The survey evaluated moods and priorities across the 15 different community types, such as heavily Hispanic areas, big cities and different kinds of rural communities.
The common denominator across the communities? A gnawing worry about daily household costs.
“Concerns about inflation are across the board,” said Dante Chinni, founder and director of ACP. “One thing that truly unites the country is economic angst.”
Rising optimism in rural areas, despite economic anxiety
Rural residents are feeling more upbeat about the country’s trajectory — even though most aren’t seeing Trump’s promised economic revival.
Carl Gruber, a 42-year-old from Newark, Ohio, who is disabled and relies on federal food assistance, was taken aback last month by the $15 cost of a Halloween candy variety pack at the Kroger supermarket. He hadn't been unaware of the persistent, elevated prices at grocery stores.
Gruber, whose spouse also can't work, remains optimistic about the country's outlook, largely due to his conviction that costs will decrease as Trump predicts.
“Right now, the president is trying to get companies who moved their businesses out of the country to move them back,” said Gruber, a Trump voter whose support has wavered over the federal shutdown that delayed his monthly food benefit. “So, maybe we’ll start to see prices come down.”
Approximately 60% of individuals residing in Rural Middle America, a category used in the survey to describe Newark, express optimism regarding the nation's prospects in the coming years, an increase from 43% in the 2024 ACP survey. Similar improvements in hopeful sentiment have been observed in other locales, such as predominantly evangelical communities and rural areas with a strong working-class presence.
Kimmie Pace, a 33-year-old unemployed mother of four from a small town in northwest Georgia, said, “I have anxiety every time I go to the grocery store.”
But she, too, is hopeful in Trump. “Trump’s in charge, and I trust him, even if we’re not seeing the benefits yet,” she said.
Big-city residents are worried about the future
Conversely, the proportion of large-city inhabitants expressing optimism about the country's future has decreased, dropping from 55% in the previous year to 45% in the latest poll.
Robert Engel, a resident of San Antonio, Texas' rapidly growing and second most populous city, expresses concern about the future of the U.S., particularly for the upcoming generation rather than his own. The 61-year-old federal employee, whose job remained unaffected by the government shutdown or President Trump's attempts to downsize the federal staff, is approaching retirement and feels secure financially.
His primary concerns involve a secure job market, accessible healthcare, and an equitable economic landscape for his grown children.
The inflation forecast has recently deteriorated under Trump. In September, consumer prices saw a rise of annual rate of 3%, a jump from the 2.3% recorded in April, coinciding with the president's initial implementation of significant tariff hikes that imposed economic uncertainty.
Engel’s less-hopeful outlook for the country is broader. “It’s not just the economy, but the state of democracy and polarization,” Engel said. “It’s a real worry. I try to be cautiously optimistic, but it’s very, very hard.”
Crime, gun violence are less a concern in urban America
Trump had threatened to deploy the National Guard to Chicago, New York, Seattle, Baltimore, San Francisco and Portland, Oregon, to fight what he said was runaway, urban crime.
However, statistics indicate that the majority of violent offenses in those areas, and nationwide, have decreased lately. This aligns with the survey results, which revealed that inhabitants of America's major cities and suburban areas are less inclined to identify crime or gun violence as primary concerns for their communities compared to last year.
Angel Gamboa, a retired municipal worker residing in Austin, Texas, finds Trump's assertions unconvincing within this city of approximately 1 million inhabitants.
“I don’t want to say it’s overblown, because crime is a serious subject,” Gamboa said. “But I feel like there’s an agenda to scare Americans, and it’s so unnecessary.”
Big City inhabitants tend to consider immigration and healthcare as significant concerns for their areas.
Residents of large urban areas are particularly likely to report observing recent shifts in immigration, as 65% of them have noticed community changes linked to immigration within the last year. This contrasts sharply with approximately 40% of residents in areas designated as Evangelical Hubs or Rural Middle America in the survey.
Gamboa notes he's observed shifts, particularly near an Austin Home Depot, where daily workers commonly congregated each morning seeking employment.
Not anymore, he said.
“Immigrants were not showing up there to commit crimes,” Gamboa said. “They were showing up to help their families. But when ICE was in the parking lot, that’s all it took to scatter people who were just trying to find a job.”
Hispanic communities are less hopeful about the future
The poll indicates that following a significant shift of Hispanic voters towards Trump in the 2024 election, individuals residing in predominantly Hispanic regions now express greater pessimism regarding their communities' futures compared to the period before Trump's election.
Carmen Maldonado characterizes her hometown of Kissimmee, Florida, a rapidly expanding, predominantly Hispanic city with approximately 80,000 inhabitants situated roughly 22 miles (35 kilometers) south of Orlando, as “seriously troubled.”
A retired 61-year-old National Guard member on active duty is not the only one feeling this way. According to the survey, 58% of individuals residing in these types of communities express optimism regarding their community's future, a decrease from 78% in the previous year.
“It’s not just hopelessness, but fear,” said Maldonado, who says people in her community — even her fellow native Puerto Ricans, who are American citizens — are anxious about the Trump administration’s aggressive pursuit of Latino immigrants.
Just over a year ago, Trump made substantial inroads with Hispanic voters in the 2024 presidential election.
Beyond just the future of their communities, Hispanic respondents are also substantially less likely to say they’re hopeful about the future of their children or the next generation: 55% this year, down from 69% in July 2024.
Maldonado worries that the Trump administration’s policies have stoked anti-Hispanic attitudes and that they will last for her adult child’s lifetime and beyond.
“My hopelessness comes from the fact that we are a large part of what makes up the United States,” she said, “and sometimes I cry thinking about these families.”
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Parwani and Thomson-DeVeaux reported from Washington.
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