Widespread adoption of autonomous self-driving vehicles isn't likely in the near future, stated Lyft CEO David Risher. He explained that the technology is not yet functional, regulatory bodies are unprepared, and public sentiment is unfavorable.
TL;DR
- Lyft CEO David Risher believes widespread self-driving car adoption is years away.
- Technology, regulatory bodies, and public sentiment are not ready for autonomous vehicles.
- Risher doubts self-driving cars will exceed 10% of Lyft's operations by 2030.
- The high cost and depreciation of autonomous vehicles make them financially unviable.
This is an unexpected viewpoint, considering he shared it during a discussion at Web Summit in Lisbon last week, an event attended by 71,000 people who appeared to be mostly convinced that AI will be able to solve almost any future problem.
Reality is going to get in the way, Risher told Coins2Day.
“That will be the case for years and years and years to come,” he said. The [car manufacturers] aren’t entirely ready. The technology isn’t entirely ready for fog or snow or heavy rain or whatever it is. People, riders aren’t necessarily excited about it [and] regulators aren’t necessarily enthusiastic about it in every place,” he said.
The deployment of autonomous driving will be gradual. Risher expressed doubt that self-driving vehicles would account for over 10% of Lyft's operations by 2030.
He believes most individuals are hesitant about autonomous vehicles and favor having a person driving. “Customers won’t demand it. They’ll just say, I don’t want to get in a self-driving car.”
The financial viability of autonomous vehicles is not as strong as commonly believed. Initially, it appears that eliminating drivers would allow ride-hailing services to cut expenses and maintain a constant fleet ready for any request, at any moment, since these vehicles don't require rest.
Risher highlights that a fleet of autonomous vehicles rapidly transforms into a costly problem of asset depreciation. During the nighttime hours, while human patrons are resting, the fleet would remain mostly idle, its worth steadily diminishing. The expenses for upkeep, sanitation, and refueling would fall entirely on the company, not on individual drivers. Furthermore, self-driving vehicles come with a significant price tag. “Today, these cost maybe $250,000 to $300,000, a very expensive product, whereas a Prius or Corolla is maybe $30,00 or $40,000.”
Based on this, it's considerably more efficient for ride-hailing firms to not possess vehicles and to instead lease them from private drivers as required.
“I don’t think the idea of a driver being replaced by robot is a very likely thing. In fact, I think it’s zero likelihood in any reasonable time frame,” he said.