Google’s launch of Gemini 3 is reshaping the landscape of artificial intelligence, judging by the enthusiasm of a few wealthy supporters and substantial shifts in market valuation. As much as $250 billion vanished from Nvidia’s market capitalization during Tuesday morning's trading sessions, as investors processed the notion that the search industry might be reasserting its dominance in the competition for AI supremacy.
TL;DR
- Google's Gemini 3 launch sparks AI race debate, impacting market valuations significantly.
- Marc Benioff praises Gemini 3, stating he is "not going back" from ChatGPT.
- Mark Cuban warns AI could become a winner-take-all market like search, dominated by Google.
- Gemini 3 boasts exceptional capabilities and leads AI benchmarks, potentially shifting industry dominance.
Billionaires Marc Benioff and Mark Cuban offered contrasting opinions that put in perspective what a pivotal moment this Thanksgiving could be in the AI race. Benioff, the Salesforce founder and CEO who is close to the center of the evolving AI story, posted on X.com that he’s been using ChatGPT every day for the last three years but he’s “not going back” after trying out Gemini 3. “The leap is insane,” he wrote, adding that “it feels like the world just changed, again.”
Cuban, for his part, warned on the Pioneers of AI podcast that the AI race could end up a lot like the search race in the 1990s. “You’ve got five, six, whatever it is, companies that are trying to create the ultimate foundational model that we all depend on,” he said, likening it to the days before Google emerged, when “you didn’t know if it was going to be a winner-take-all, or a top five.” AI could easily end up the same way, he added, in remarks previously reported by Business Insider. “Now, we know with search engines it’s Google … it’s effectively a winner-take-all.”
Market watchers have been suggesting a new frontrunner has emerged, and that the established power is making a comeback. This week's developments prompt consideration: could the dominant force in AI, following the turbulence of the past three years, actually be Google?
Gemini 3: A Turning Point?
On November 18, Google unveiled Gemini 3—the initial AI system integrated directly into its Search service—was unveiled, boasting what the company termed exceptional capabilities in coding, mathematics, scientific deduction, and imaginative composition. According to reports from The Verge, Gemini 3 rapidly ascended to the top of the LMArena charts, a prominent benchmark for AI systems, achieving an unprecedented score for understanding and context.
Google emphasized the model's novel Deep Think reasoning mode as a significant improvement beyond earlier Gemini and OpenAI versions, providing developers with a resource adept at handling both varied data types and complex reasoning problems. According to Google, Deep Think surpassed Gemini 3 Pro in trials for Humanity’s Last Exam (41.0% without external aids) and GPQA Diamond (93.8%), additionally achieving a remarkable 45.1% on ARC-AGI-2, which assesses the ability to tackle new problems.
Analysts were effusive regarding Gemini 3. DA Davidson described Gemini 3 as “current state-of-the-art” and its “favorite model generally available today,”, whereas Bank of America Securities stated it was “another positive step” for Google as they endeavored to bridge any “perceived LLM performance gap” with competitors such as OpenAI. Concurrently, OpenAI has encountered a reported decline in engagement, and The Information reported indicates that CEO Sam Altman cautioned employees about “temporary economic headwinds” and “rough vibes” due to escalating rivalry.
Market shifts appear to be conveying a narrative. Nvidia, at the center of a massive web of spending with OpenAI a key player as well has experienced a decline of almost 4% following the unveiling of Gemini 3, and a drop of nearly 9% within the past month. In contrast, Alphabet has seen an increase of 11% over the last five days and approximately 19% over the preceding month. Other equities more directly linked to the OpenAI developments have faced greater setbacks, with Advanced Micro Devices falling more than 13% over five days and over 23% within a month, while Oracle has decreased by over 10% and more than 30% during the corresponding timeframes.