In July 2022, I shifted my professional path from consulting to education. Beyond finding the work inherently engaging and fulfilling, I believed instructing would offer a break following nearly twenty years of constant engagement with challenges, clients, and, at times, coworkers. Subsequently, in November 2022, OpenAI unveiled the initial iteration of ChatGPT. It rapidly became apparent that artificial intelligence (AI) possessed the capacity to profoundly alter my current field, my former profession, and numerous other sectors.
TL;DR
- Significant transformation is predictably unpredictable, with unforeseen origins and chaotic progression.
- Disruptive innovation requires an original method for generating, acquiring, and distributing worth.
- Navigating transformation is complex; reducing oversight prolongs uncertainty and increases negative consequences.
- Historical patterns offer a compass for comprehending AI's complex current situation and future developments.
For the past three years, I've been actively exploring AI via a course I developed, titled “AI and Consultative Decision Making.”. Concurrently, I authored the book Epic Disruptions, which required extensive historical investigation into examples of groundbreaking innovations, spanning from gunpowder to Pampers disposable diapers.
A recurring theme from my investigation is that significant transformation is predictably unpredictable. While general trends exist, the involvement of people and intricate networks introduces unforeseen developments into each narrative.
As the adage suggests, history might not echo itself precisely, but it often bears a striking resemblance. Five historical takeaways appear relevant to how AI might—or might not—precipitate monumental transformative shifts.
Unforeseen locations frequently serve as the origin point for disruption.
During the 1940s, Walter Bradeen, John Brattain, and William Shockley, researchers at Bell Labs, created a novel invention known as the transistor. Their research aimed to devise a technology that could substitute for the vacuum tubes then used in communications systems. The transistor offered distinct advantages: it was compact, durable, and generated no heat. Nevertheless, initial iterations proved unstable and necessitated the redesign of existing systems.
It required many years for transistors to be integrated into telecommunications systems. Hearing aids represented the initial commercial application. The transistor was an ideal fit for this sector. Hearing aids were comparatively uncomplicated, facilitating the integration of transistors. Vacuum tubes generated heat, rendering belt-mounted battery packs inconvenient. Tubes would fail, increasing the overall expense of owning a hearing aid. The market for transistor-powered hearing aids experienced rapid growth, fostering subsequent technological advancements that eventually led to the current era of telecommunications and computation.
Our typical attention is directed toward AI's advancement and implementation in major, complex economies such as the United States or Western Europe. Nevertheless, a significant factor behind ChatGPT's swift expansion stems from its adoption in developing economies that possess inadequate health and educational systems. Instead of posing questions like “How does AI compare to a skilled teacher or clinician?”, individuals inquire about “Is AI better than nothing at all?”. Historical patterns indicate that a thorough analysis of changes in emerging markets is crucial for identifying transformative shifts at an early stage.
The key ingredient for disruptive innovation lies in an original method for generating, acquiring, and distributing worth.
Initially, the restaurant opened by Mac and Dick McDonald was ordinary. The journey toward significant change began when they closed the establishment in 1948 and introduced the “Speedee Service System”, which streamlined and standardized the preparation of food. When Ray Kroc essentially became the primary franchisor of the idea in 1954, he and his associates devised a distinctive framework that included a close working relationship with those who held franchise rights. During the 1960s, Heny Sonneborn refined a strategy that enabled the McDonald’s Corporation to generate revenue via property ownership. The distinctive method by Which McDonald’s generated, provided, and secured value—its operational blueprint—enabled it to serve countless individuals at a profit.
A distinctive approach to business operations is the key ingredient for groundbreaking innovation. This is what enabled Amazon.com, Google, and Netflix to become dominant forces thirty years ago. Distinctive business models supply the capital for ongoing development and hinder established companies' reactions.
Presently, prominent research institutions such as OpenAI and Anthropic are employing commercial strategies that are neither groundbreaking nor challenging for tech corporations like Amazon, Microsoft, or Google to replicate. Should these labs fail to devise distinctive methods for generating, securing, and distributing worth, historical patterns indicate they may face limited durations as independent entities.
3. The period of significant change is invariably chaotic during its progression.
During the 1920s, a struggle emerged for the essence of the thoroughfares in numerous prominent American metropolises. Henry Ford had realized his ambition: the automobile for the “great multitudes.”. The refinement of the production line reduced the price of Ford’s Model T from $30,000 (adjusted for current value) in 1908 to $5,000. Commerce escalated.
This situation benefited some individuals while proving detrimental to others. Urban areas were conceived for pedestrians, not for motor vehicles. The rapid rise in car ownership led to disorder and fatalities. Editorial illustrations from the 1920s frequently depicted the Grim Reaper operating automobiles. One such cartoon in the St. Louis Star depicted a man on his knees, presenting a tray of children to a car with a grotesque, grinning face. In 1922, the mayor of Baltimore unveiled a 25-foot monument, constructed from wood and plaster, honoring the 130 children lost in traffic collisions that year.
Navigating the midst of significant transformation is invariably complex. Exiting the automotive industry's transitional phase necessitated advancements like traffic control systems, mandates such as driver licensing requirements, and established practices, like yielding at junctions.
Viewing it this way, an effort to reduce rules and oversight is ill-advised because it prolongs AI's uncertain development phase and heightens the likelihood of negative consequences. Forecasters Bob Johansen and Jamias Cascio observe that establishing exact regulations is challenging in rapidly evolving markets like AI, thus proposing the analogy of a “bounce rope” within a wrestling arena. The arena features solid posts and defined edges, but these limits possess flexibility and yield.
4. The narrative frequently includes an unexpected turn.
When Johannes Gutenberg and his associates looked for an initial client for the printing press, their attention naturally went to the Catholic Church. The Church faced genuine challenges, including the need to standardize missals employed in religious services and to reduce the three years required for manually copying a Bible. Upon viewing a Gutenberg Bible in 1454, Enea Silvio Piccolomini, who later ascended to the papacy as Pope Pius II, lauded their “very neat and legible script” and observed how they could be read “without the use of glasses.”
The Church had not anticipated the subsequent events. The advent of printing presses amplified the capacity for individuals such as Martin Luther to disseminate concepts challenging the Church. Between 1518 and 1525, one-third of all books published in Germany originated from Luther. The printing press proved beneficial for certain groups—scholars, insurgents, and business owners who established enterprises utilizing this technology—while proving detrimental to others: manuscript copyists, high-ranking clergy, and anyone who benefited from a lack of widespread knowledge.
Management consulting companies have profited handsomely from AI-related work. In early 2024 Boston Consulting Group said that 20 percent of its revenues was AI-related. McKinsey touted how it was using its custom-created AI solution to boost its productivity and accelerate developing unique impact. What if, however, clients learn how to use AI in ways that obviate consultants? Or if AI reliance withered a consulting company’s ability to develop unique talent? Could the major consulting companies look at AI the same way the Church looked at the printing press?
5. It’s all about the people
DBS Bank of Singapore presents an extraordinary account of change, which I explored in my 2020 publication Eat, Sleep, Innovate. Back in 2010, it lagged behind competitors in its domestic arena. By 2025, DBS had earned broad acclaim for its agility and digital expertise.
Its digital transformation involved key strategic shifts and major investments in technology. Those moves were necessary, but not sufficient. The critical unlock came from a set of behavioral interventions to help bankers use technologies in new ways. Paul Cobban, who was DBS’s Chief Data and Transformation Officer from 2009-2022 observed that without a systematic and structured approach to cultural change, adopting digital technologies would be akin to replacing memos with emails or emails with Slack messages. One of Cobban’s mantras was, “Nothing changes unless people’s behavior changes.”
The same applies to AI. Its adoption isn't a technical hurdle; rather, it's a matter of sociology and culture. Jim Wilson of Accenture calculates that for every dollar invested in technology, businesses ought to anticipate allocating six dollars toward the human aspects of transformation.
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A recurring insight that became apparent to me throughout the investigation and composition of Epic Disruptions is the distinctive manner in which historical accounts offer a means to comprehend a complex current situation. While unforeseen disruptions are to be expected, and artificial intelligence will undoubtedly deviate from certain established trends, the historical record serves as a valuable compass, indicating avenues for exploration and specific elements to scrutinize in order to grasp future developments.
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