How the leading coffee-producing nation is altering its coffee varieties

This South American nation stands as the globe's foremost producer of arabica, a smooth type of coffee bean. However, with climate change presenting greater challenges to cultivating these beans, certain growers are shifting their focus to robusta, a variety yielding a more acrid bean but capable of withstanding warmer conditions and exhibiting greater resilience to ailments. 

Brazil's established coffee cultivation areas, predominantly yielding arabica, have been impacted by more severe and frequent droughts, along with elevated temperatures. While arabica remains the nation's primary coffee shipment, the output of robusta is currently expanding more rapidly: by more than 81% in the last decade, as reported by The United States Department of Agriculture, an entity that monitors worldwide coffee output. 

Fernando Maximiliano, Coffee Market Intelligence Manager at StoneX, a financial services firm, stated that for Brazil, robusta offers a chance to maintain its position as the globe's top coffee exporter going forward, even as the effects of climate change grow more severe.

“It wasn’t necessarily demand that resulted in the growth of robusta production,” he adds. “In reality, climate problems and losses in arabica were the main factors that contributed to stimulating robusta growth.”

Over the last three years, Brazil's arabica coffee output has expanded by approximately 2% to 2.5% each year, whereas robusta output has climbed by roughly 4.8% annually. This current growing period saw robusta achieve an almost 22% surge, marking a record yield, as reported by StoneX. This indicates that robusta production has distinguished itself due to its superior resilience against harsher weather and its financial returns, according to industry experts. 

In Brazil's hotter regions, where arabica cultivation isn't feasible, coffee growers are developing methods to cultivate robusta and lessen the effects of rising temperatures. One such strategy involves establishing coffee plants beneath the canopy of indigenous trees and other flora.

“This way it will remain productive, it will stay a little more moist, so it won’t degrade so easily,” Jonatas Machado, commercial director of Café Apuí, an agroforestry robusta coffee producer in the Amazon region.

A different bean

Vietnam stands as the leading global producer of robusta coffee, though Brazil is making significant progress and may overtake the Southeast Asian nation thanks to a robust supply chain, as indicated by analysts at Rabobank, a financial services firm. 

Robusta coffee contains more caffeine and possesses a more intense flavor profile compared to arabica. However, younger consumers are less concerned with the specific coffee variety or its roasting level, instead favoring personalized beverages. They often incorporate additions such as milks, creamers, and syrups, which mask the inherent taste of the coffee beans.

“They’re not so much about the origins, the tasting notes,” said Matthew Barry, global insight manager for food, cooking and meals at market research firm Euromonitor International.

If coffee prices keep rising, consumers might also gravitate towards robusta, which costs less.

In Europe, the price disparity between robusta and arabica is anticipated to grow significantly in the upcoming years. A new regulation mandates that imported commodities must be certified to confirm they weren't sourced from land recently cleared or degraded, although the exact date for its enforcement is still unclear. Instant coffee, predominantly produced from the robusta bean, is excluded from these regulations. This exemption might boost the market for products derived from robusta, as suggested by Rabobank.

The European Union stands as the foremost purchaser of instant coffee, capturing approximately half of the worldwide income generated by this product, as reported by Grand View Research, a firm specializing in business advisement.

While robusta tends to be cheaper than arabica, its prices have been reaching record highs.

The increased costs and the fact that these varieties yield nearly double that of arabica have persuaded an expanding segment of Brazilian coffee growers to put money into cultivating robusta, according to Alexsandro Teixeira, a coffee specialist with The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation.

Producers of Robusta are also enhancing the caliber of their coffee beans. This development has rendered the variety more appealing to buyers and resulted in a rise in its market value, according to him.