The globe's biggest prediction market service is making its way back to the U.S. On Wednesday, Polymarket announced on X that individuals can join the queue for its application, stating the firm will initially provide sports wagering, with “markets on everything” to be introduced later.
TL;DR
- Polymarket, a prediction market service, is returning to the U.S. and will initially offer sports wagering.
- The firm faced a U.S. prohibition in 2022 due to regulatory concerns but has now obtained approval.
- Prediction markets allow wagers on various events, gaining acceptance after correctly predicting Trump's electoral success.
- Polymarket operates on a blockchain, accepts fiat and digital assets, and has received significant investment.
Polymarket's upcoming re-entry into the U.S. Occurs as prediction market platforms, such as Kalshi and Robinhood, compete with entities like DraftKings and FanDuel for a portion of the profitable sports wagering sector, while also facilitating wagers on numerous other subjects.
Polymarket faced a prohibition from conducting business in the U.S. After encountering criticism from regulatory bodies in early 2022, stemming from the fact that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found it provided wagering agreements without the commission's consent. Subsequently, the FBI searched the residence of the firm's originator, Shayne Coplan. However, at the beginning of this year, American legal representatives and the CTFC concluded their inquiries, and the enterprise obtained regulatory approval.
Prediction markets—venues where individuals can wager on upcoming occurrences, from the magnitude of a Federal Reserve reduction to the quantity of Elon Musk's posts within a specific seven-day period—have gained widespread acceptance. This shift partly commenced when Polymarket and its primary rival Kalshi correctly predicted President Trump's electoral success, diverging from numerous nationwide surveys.
Polymarket operates its service on a blockchain network, allowing participants to place bets using either fiat currency or digital assets. Reports suggest the fledgling company is also preparing to introduce its own digital token.
Polymarket and Kalshi hold valuations of $15 billion and $11 billion, respectively. Established financial entities have also shown support for this area. In October, an affiliate of the New York Stock Exchange allocated $2 billion to Polymarket.
Before this week, individuals in the U.S. Needing to reach Polymarket were required to employ a VPN. In contrast, Kalshi secured CFTC authorization and has been operational within the U.S. Since 2021.
Recent times have seen sports wagering entangled in dispute, with Major American leagues such as the NBA and MLB experiencing scandals. These incidents claim that athletes, including Terry Rozier and Emmanuel Clase, altered their game outcomes to benefit gamblers. Opponents contend that the widespread growth of forecasting platforms might similarly undermine political arenas and other established bodies.
Currently, however, prediction markets are moving forward with great speed. Participants can even wager on whether Polymarket will become operational in the U.S. During 2025, with the likelihood presently at 99%.
