Republicans maintained control of a predictably conservative U.S. House seat in Tennessee’s special election, though only following a late surge of nationwide funding and prominent advocacy that aided them in achieving a victory margin under half of the previous year's contest.
TL;DR
- Republicans narrowly won a special election in Tennessee, but the victory margin was significantly smaller than in previous years.
- The outcome signals potential challenges for Republicans in the 2026 elections, with Democrats leveraging economic frustrations and Trump's unpopularity.
- Some Republicans acknowledge warning signs, citing Democratic enthusiasm and a need to address affordability concerns.
- Democrats see promise in the results, despite the loss, believing Republicans are struggling and divided.
Despite that win, the result added to a somber forecast for the party as it approaches the 2026 elections that will decide who leads Congress. The GOP will have to protect significantly more precarious positions if they aim to retain their House advantage, while the Democratic party is leveraging President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and the populace's persistent frustration concerning the economy.
“The danger signs are there, and we shouldn’t have had to spend that kind of money to hold that kind of seat,” said Jason Roe, a national Republican strategist working on battleground races next year.
He said that “Democratic enthusiasm is dramatically higher than Republican enthusiasm.”
Republican Matt Van Epps, an ex-military member and former state general services commissioner, bested Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn by nine percent on Tuesday for the position left open by Republican Mark Green, who retired over the summer. Green had secured reelection in 2024 with a 21-point margin.
Special elections offer a restricted glimpse into voter sentiment and occur under circumstances quite unlike typical election periods. Nevertheless, some Republicans are admitting the cautionary indicators, particularly following decisive wins by Democrats in New Jersey, Virginia, and other locations during the previous month.
This year marked the fifth special election in the House, with Democratic contenders achieving an average of 16 percentage points greater than Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential election results within those same districts.
“We could have lost this district,” U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, told Fox News after The Associated Press called the race for Van Epps. Cruz said his party must “set out the alarm bells” because next year is “going to be a turnout election and the left will show up.”
Trump dismisses affordability concerns
Despite a decrease in inflation since Democratic President Joe Biden assumed office, Behn centered her campaign on persistent worries regarding costs.
Trump has played down the affordability issue, saying during a Cabinet meeting Tuesday that it was “a con job” by his political opponents.
“There’s this fake narrative that the Democrats talk about, affordability,” he said. “They just say the word. It doesn’t mean anything to anybody, they just say it.”
Roe held a contrasting perspective. He stated that the contest in Tennessee had “better be a wake-up call that we’ve got to address the affordability problem, and the president denying that affordability is a political issue is not helpful.”
For Trump, retaining GOP leadership in the House is vital, as he's concerned about a recurrence of his initial presidency, during which Democrats gained control of the House and initiated an impeachment investigation. The Republican commander-in-chief has been urging states governed by Republicans to revise their congressional districts to boost the party's prospects.
Minimizing the significance of the vote that occurred on Tuesday, U.S. Representative Mike Lawler, a Republican from New York, stated, “There’s nothing unique about the party out of power performing better in a special election.”
The Republican National Committee dispatched personnel and collaborated with state representatives to encourage voter turnout. MAGA Inc., a super political action committee that had ceased public activity since endorsing Trump in 2024, reappeared to support Van Epps with approximately $1.7 million.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., visited the Nashville-area district on Monday.
“When you’re in a deep red district, sometimes people assume that the Republican, the conservative will win,” he said Tuesday. “And you cannot assume that, because anything can happen.”
Chip Saltsman, a political strategist and former chair of the Tennessee Republican Party, stated that his party deployed its most influential figures solely due to the absence of other significant events, rather than any apprehension of defeat.
“It’s the only election going on. Why wouldn’t the speaker come?” He asked. “There was one race, and you would expect everybody to do everything they could.”
Even with worries regarding a lack of participation in the election held after Thanksgiving, approximately 180,000 individuals cast ballots, a figure comparable to the count during the 2022 midterm elections.
Democrats see promise despite loss
The House Majority PAC allocated $1 million to support Behn, whose campaign stated it had “inspired an entire country.”
California Congressman Pete Aguilar, the third-highest-ranking Democrat in the House, stated that Republicans “see the writing on the wall” and “it’s a mess over there.”
“They’re fighting amongst themselves right now,” he said Wednesday.
Despite Democratic optimism, the outcome sparked some internal discussion within the party regarding the most effective strategy for regaining influence in Washington.
Within the special elections held this year, the change in Behn’s alignment was the second most minor, creating an opportunity for certain groups who feel that more centrist contenders would achieve superior results.
“Each time we nominate a far-left candidate in a swing district who declares themselves to be radical and alienates the voters in the middle who deliver majorities, we set back that cause,” said a statement from Lanae Erickson, a senior vice president at Third Way, a centrist Democrat think tank.
GOP operatives attempted to use Behn's statements against her in televised commercials, for instance, when she characterized herself as a “radical” or asserted she was “bullying” immigration officers and state troopers. Additionally, remarks Behn uttered concerning Nashville in the past were brought up, during which she stated, “I hate this city,” and voiced displeasure regarding celebrations for brides-to-be.
A number of prominent progressive figures, such as U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat from New York, had actively supported Behn during the closing stages of the election.
___
Associated Press writer Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.
