The chief executive of Arm, Rene Haas, forecasts that AI-driven humanoid robots may assume substantial portions of manufacturing tasks in the coming five to 10 years, thereby revolutionizing the industrial sector.
TL;DR
- Rene Haas forecasts AI humanoid robots will replace manufacturing tasks in 5-10 years.
- General purpose humanoid robots with physical AI can be reprogrammed for different jobs.
- Physical AI may balance global competition by automating substantial factory tasks.
- Arm CEO notes semiconductor supply chain has many single points of failure.
One of the key forces pushing humanoid robots into factories is their advantage over the robotic arms and other automation machinery in use today, Haas said. Traditional factory robots are purpose-built machines designed for a single task, with both hardware and software optimized for that specific function. General purpose humanoid robots by contrast, combined with increasingly sophisticated “physical AI” that helps navigate the real world, will be able to take on different jobs on the fly with quick modifications to their instructions.
“I think in the next five years, you’re going to see large sections of factory work replaced by robots—and part of the reason for that is that these physical AI robots can be reprogrammed into different tasks,” Haas said at Coins2Day Brainstorm AI in San Francisco on Monday.
“One of the issues you’d had with factory robots in the past is that if it was a pick and place machine for a factory, they’re just optimized for one task—the software was for one task, the hardware is for one task. Now, if you design a general-purpose humanoid that the software is all AI and it learns by doing, it’s going to completely replace a large set of factory workers,” he said.
What happens to those workers and the broader job market as AI and robots proliferate in businesses is a growing concern among many policymakers and industry observers, with ideas ranging from worker re-skilling to universal basic income among the options under debate.
Haas didn't directly discuss employment, but indicated that extensive use of physical AI might alter international manufacturing trends, possibly contributing to a more balanced global competition by automating substantial factory tasks. “Physical AI will be a great enabler,” he stated.
Haas also pointed to Waymo’s autonomous vehicles as an early indicator of physical AI’s potential.
He stated that upcoming autonomous systems might necessitate even less physical equipment. Although present self-driving vehicles are equipped with radar and cameras to monitor their environment, subsequent versions employing more sophisticated AI models could function with a reduced number of sensors, depending on artificial intelligence instead of extensive data gathering for decision-making.
The semiconductor supply chain has ‘many single points of failure’
Arm, which does not manufacture or sell its own chips, designs and licenses the architecture used in processors made by companies including Qualcomm and Apple. Chips based on Arm’s designs are used in everything from smartphones and refrigerators to cars and servers, and most people use between 50 to 100 Arm chips on their person or in their homes, Haas said.
The extensive adoption and market dominance reflect the energy efficiency and capabilities that have propelled Arm's chip architecture to widespread acclaim. However, this also introduces vulnerabilities within the semiconductor supply network.
When questioned regarding this weakness, Haas recognized the significant market consolidation in the sector, and pointed out that a number of major corporations each manage crucial segments of the semiconductor production pipeline: “The semiconductor supply chain has many single points of failure. There’s TSMC, which is in a very obviously interesting part of the world geopolitically. There is also a very sophisticated device that has to go into these fabs that comes from one company on the planet … called ASML.”
Over the last several years, the COVID-19 pandemic brought to light certain supply-chain weaknesses, as a scarcity of chips meant customers couldn't obtain essential car key fobs for several weeks. That situation, according to Haas, was “just a function of the semiconductor supply chain that has many single points of failure.”
Haas said the entire industry is “learning to live with“ the concentration of risk.
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