The primary driver of job displacement at present isn't artificial intelligence; rather, insufficient demand, economic challenges, and a disparity in required versus possessed abilities are contributing more significantly to the issue, as indicated by the most recent quarterly forecast from ManpowerGroup, a prominent global staffing firm. Although automation and AI are undeniably altering the nature of job roles and future recruitment strategies, the employment outlook survey for the first quarter of 2026 indicates that individuals lacking a suitable combination of technical proficiencies and interpersonal abilities face greater vulnerability compared to those whose skill sets align with employer requirements.
TL;DR
- Insufficient demand, economic challenges, and skill gaps are primary job displacement drivers, not AI.
- Businesses worldwide intend to recruit, but at a reduced rate with smaller staff increases.
- A significant skills deficit persists, with 72% of companies struggling to find qualified personnel.
- Companies are focusing on upskilling current employees rather than replacing them with AI.
Since 1962, ManPower claims its Employment Outlook Survey stands as the most comprehensive forward-looking poll of its nature, unmatched in its scale, breadth, and duration, and recognized as one of the most reliable gauges of labor market shifts globally. Anticipating the transition to the new year, the survey indicates that businesses worldwide continue to intend to recruit, albeit at a reduced rate and with smaller increases in staff numbers compared to earlier stages of the pandemic's resurgence.
Worldwide, 40% of businesses foresee a rise in personnel during the initial quarter, and an additional 40% intend to maintain current employee numbers. However, the average firm now projects bringing on merely eight new staff members, a consistent decline from figures seen in mid-2025. Major corporations employing 5,000 or more individuals have reduced their projected recruitment by approximately half since the second quarter of 2025, highlighting the extent to which significant employers are exercising financial restraint, even while continuing to hire in crucial sectors.
Geographic trends vary. North America's job prospects have seen a significant decrease compared to the previous year, reaching one of its lowest points in almost five years. In contrast, South and Central America, along with The Asia Pacific–Middle East area, are experiencing more positive sentiment. Europe's outlook remains subdued, with a minor dip from the prior year, indicating that many businesses are adopting a cautious approach rather than pursuing substantial growth or significant workforce reductions.
A deficit of skilled workers, rather than a lack of employment opportunities.
Even with a slowdown in recruitment, 72% of companies indicate they continue to face challenges in locating qualified personnel, a figure barely lower than last year, supporting the notion of a skills deficit rather than a lack of available jobs. Europe experiences the most intense strain, as almost three-quarters of employers mention struggles in staffing positions, whereas South and Central America report the lowest levels, though still two-thirds of businesses in that area are impacted.
The findings indicate that a lack of personnel is especially pronounced within the information industry and in public sectors like healthcare and social support. In these areas, seventy-five percent of entities indicate trouble recruiting suitable individuals, despite some employees in related positions lamenting job cuts and stagnant professional advancement, which underscores the widening disparity between the available workforce and the precise competencies businesses are seeking.
Expertise in artificial intelligence is limited, yet AI is not the sole solution.
If artificial intelligence were the main cause of job cuts, companies wouldn't concurrently state that the most challenging skills to recruit are those connected to AI. Nevertheless, 20% of businesses indicate that expertise in developing AI models and applications is the most challenging to secure, and an additional 19% report the same for AI literacy, which refers to the capacity to utilize AI instruments proficiently; these deficits are even more significant in the Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern regions.
Simultaneously, when companies implement workforce reductions, they predominantly attribute these actions to economic conditions rather than automation. Executives anticipating layoffs point to financial difficulties, diminished consumer interest, industry realignments, and restructuring as the primary drivers for personnel cuts, with automation and enhanced productivity measures serving a less significant purpose and impacting only specific positions or departments. Shifts in necessary competencies rank lowest among the articulated justifications for workforce decreases, indicating that technological advancements are more frequently reshaping employment opportunities than eradicating them entirely.
A gap between required and available skills is the primary reason for job cuts.
A growing disparity between available worker competencies and job requirements is identified as a primary issue within the employment sector. Companies indicate that the proficiencies demanded by their operations have evolved, leading to the emergence of novel positions in certain fields and rendering others obsolete. They face difficulties in recruiting for vacancies that necessitate abilities that many laid-off employees currently lack. Among businesses expanding their workforce, approximately one-fourth attribute this growth to technological progress, yet they require individuals with the appropriate knowledge to occupy these tech-centric positions.
Beyond specialized technical proficiencies, those responsible for hiring are explicit regarding their desires: effective communication, cooperative efforts, and collective work are paramount among interpersonal competencies, succeeded by a professional demeanor, flexibility, and analytical reasoning. Proficiency with digital tools is also gaining significance, particularly within industries reliant on substantial data, thereby increasing the challenge for employees deficient in fundamental technological ease to contend even for roles not requiring specialized technical expertise.
Instead of substituting employees with automated systems entirely, numerous businesses are attempting to close the skills disparity by educating their current workforce. Enhancing existing skills and acquiring new ones continue to be the predominant approaches for addressing a lack of qualified personnel, surpassing tactics like increasing compensation, engaging freelance workers, or directly employing artificial intelligence and automation to reduce staff numbers.
Major corporations show a strong commitment to this strategy, as the proportion of businesses focusing on skill enhancement increases with their scale. Businesses across all significant geographical areas indicate intentions to equip employees with training for emerging technologies and operational methods, acknowledging that the swift evolution of technology necessitates ongoing development instead of singular reorganizations.
The big grain of salt for this survey is that it is limited to the next quarter. In the case of a worse long-term downturn, all bets could be off about just how many jobs could be automated with AI tools. This question is beyond the scope of the ManPower survey, but Goldman Sachs economists tackled the issue in October, writing, “history also suggests that the full consequences of AI for the labor market might not become apparent until a recession hits.” David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei noted that job growth has been modest in recent quarters while GDP growth has been robust, and that is “likely to be normal to some degree in the years ahead,” noting an aging society and lower immigration. The result is an oxymoron: “jobless growth.”
However, until the age of employment without expansion is fully realized, the ManPower survey indicates that expansion will involve recruiting individuals possessing the appropriate AI proficiencies, whatever those may eventually be.
For this story, Coins2Day news reporters employed AI that creates content as a means to investigate. An editorial staff member confirmed the correctness of the details prior to its release.
