Christmas Day brought a gift to crypto owners as Bitcoin briefly rose above $99,000. Alas, the surge soon faded, and by Friday the original cryptocurrency had fallen below $94,000—a more than 14% drop from the all-time high of $108,000 that Bitcoin hit on Dec. 17. This raises the question of whether this is a temporary lull, or instead a longer-term pullback following the giddy highs that coincided with the initial exuberance over a new, pro-crypto sentiment in Washington, D.C.
The history of Bitcoin is one of wild run-ups followed by crashes and prolonged slumps. Those crashes, however, are far less dramatic than in the earlier days of the currency, such as in 2013 when the price of one Bitcoin soared from around $13 to a then-astounding $1,100, only to slump to around $300 a year later.
A similar dynamic took place in the crypto boom years of 2017 and 2021 when Bitcoin hit respective highs of around $20,000 and $69,000, and then fell over 80%.
The most recent bull market, however, has been marked by certain factors that may distinguish it from previous cycles. For starters, the rally has come about in two waves. The first came early this year when a wave of approvals for new Bitcoin ETFs saw the currency hit a then all-time high of $74,000 before sliding.
The second crypto surge came after November elections that saw Donald Trump, a recent convert to crypto, prevail alongside pro-crypto Republicans in both the Senate and House of Representatives. This political realignment has resulted in a dramatic shift in the broader crypto narrative as the U.S. Government is expected to embrace the industry after years of trying to stamp it out of existence.
In addition to the ETF and political tailwinds, Bitcoin and the crypto industry are also reaping the benefit of newfound interest from big companies and even nation states. This underscores how support for Bitcoin is far broader and deeper than ever before, which suggests that a dramatic crash of 80% or more—as happened in the past—is unlikely.
Despite these positive fundamentals, the latest rally has again failed to deliver the long-sought “killer application” capable of making crypto part of day-to-day life for consumers. Instead, it has brought the familiar wave of hype and hustles, as dubious secondary projects seek to cash in on the speculative frenzy.
Crypto veterans, though, may counter that a popular use case has arrived in the form of stablecoins, and in Bitcoin itself, which has made a stronger case than ever that it is indeed “digital gold”—a rare and secure store of value accepted anywhere in the world.
Finally, despite the popular crypto notion that Bitcoin is a hedge against macroeconomic trouble, recent weeks have shown again that crypto prices continue to be shaped by factors like stock market prices and central bank interest rate decisions.
The bottom line: Though history shows that Bitcoin is prone to prolonged slumps after hitting an all-time high, a new set of fundamentals is likely to make it more resilient than during previous cycles.
